Z TrainTrust the Process.
After another successful draft, the Braves added two more top-shelf guys to an already star-studded farm system. Check this great analysis of our draft here. Kyle Wright dropping to 5th is a travesty. I’m not going to sit here and pretend like I’m an all-knowing college baseball asshole, but I watched him pitch an absolute gem against Clemson in the Regional, and the guy can throw a baseball, lemme tell you. Drew Waters is a little more of a question mark, but seems like a high-ceiling player. He was projected to go first round at the beginning of the year, and fell off the radar a bit, even after a pretty solid year of prep ball. He’s an ATL kid, and you can’t criticize the move of letting him live around his family in GA and develop his game. The Braves have a very clear cut strategy from their drafts and international signings in the Coppolella era, and I believe there are three clear points we can take away: 1. Target High-Ceiling Arms Looking through the Braves last few drafts, Kyle Wright has been the only college-age player taken in the first round in some time. However, all of our drafts target arms with seriously high ceilings: See Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, Lucas Sims. Targeting high school arms is such a risky business. There’s that famous “Moneyball” moment where Billy Beane loses his mind when they draft Jeremy Hellickson out of high school. But the Braves are trying to establish a culture. They’ve drafted a bunch of suburban Atlanta boys (like Waters, Allard, Anderson and Sims are all from the Greater Atlanta area), and tried to create a comfortable but challenging environment to develop game from a young age. Allard came with back problems, Anderson was drafted seriously high at pick 3, and Sims has had several hiccups in his development thus far (2-9 in AAA ball in Gwinnett this year, yikes), but I still like the strategy. It goes against Beane and Epstein’s thoughts of taking high-level batters rather than taking the risk of pitchers, but I like walking the tightrope game. As a kid growing up in the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-Millwood era, I totally salivate at the thought of seeing a rotation as talented as that again. Haters will point out the Mets, but injuries can happen to any player. I like the Braves culture better than the Mets’, and trust our trainers, managers and coaches enough to develop our young arms into something special. We’re already seeing early productivity with Sean Newcomb’s absolute gem Tuesday night (I bet on us, hell yeah, droppin’ the Newk), so let’s hope the rest follow suit. 2. Target Surefire Position Players As risky as the Braves go with pitchers, they tend to stay on the conservative side with position players. Of the players that Coppy has drafted or traded for, you notice a trend of guys everybody knew would be good. This may seem like a lame, obvious analysis, but it has merit and it’s my fucking blog so back off. Dansby Swanson with his incredible hair and Inciarte both obviously stick out, but we’re starting to see fruit from the development of Johan Camargo and Rio Ruiz (who has struggled, but has shown potential). Buried in our farm system, we have several guys who will absolutely be solid big-leaguers. Ozzie Albies, a top 10 prospect, has the potential to be a Barry Larkin type of player, and the thought of an Albies-Swanson middle of the infield makes me want to try to turn the cum in my pants into a decade of season tickets. Lesser known guys (for now at least) are guys like Ronald Acuna, Kevin Maitan and Austin Riley. I don’t even think a worst-case development scenario would prevent any one of these guys from being contributing MLB players for a long time. Acuna perhaps could be one of the hidden gems in minor league baseball, he’s knocking the cover off the ball in AA at 19 years old and is a genuine 5-tool guy, even as only the 86th prospect in baseball and 7th in our own system. Speaking of 5-tool guys, Maitan is maybe even more exciting than Albies or Acuna, and he’s set to make his debut in July. He’s a 17-year old Venezuelan, and we dished out an insane international record of $4.25m to sign him at 16. He can play pretty much anywhere in the infield, probably outfield too. Austin Riley is just a ballplayer, he’ll probably wind up at one of the corners or LF, and he’s a solid hitter with good baseball IQ (i.e. – he’s white) who is increasing his K:BB ratio impressively in A+ ball. My point is, this is where the Beane/Epstein approach coincides with the Coppolella process. It’s cliché, but your position guys play every day. These are the guys you want spearheading how your team plays the game and your clubhouse culture. Drafting and molding guys from a young age can charge team spirit into a locker room (see the 2016 baby Cubs and 2014-15 Royals), which often is missed in the pros, and really can be a weapon when the “pride in our team” mindset is reached. 3. Small Ball Approach This feels obvious again, but there aren’t many teams around the league who seem to understand this. The Braves of 5 years ago were the kings of strikeouts. While I loved Evan Gattis and J-Up, it’s just not a sustainable course for a franchise to live and die by the home run ball. Coppy’s first order of business was clearing house and adding guys who hit for contact; the perfect manifestation of consistently high batting average, Nick Markakis. This still resonates in the players he brings in today, and you can see it in the draft. Nearly any young player with good pop is going to have trouble striking out at first, but that’s exactly what the Braves have targeted. Riley and minor league catcher Alex Jackson have been the main two that have been working on their eye tremendously. Go read anything about these two guys, the Braves are done developing their natural pop and are just working on shortening the swing, working on the mental dimension of batting and getting an eye for the strike zone. That’s the perfect plan for a promising prospect with pop, and it seems obvious, but how many guys do you see get to the majors for their home run potential but are perennial .220 - .260 guys that never developed their eye? A shit ton. Maitan, Swanson, Albies, Acuna and Inciarte are five guys that exude nothing but this thought process. All of these guys hit for contact well, minimally strike out, even at very young ages (Inciarte is the old guy of the crew at 23), and all have great gloves and speed. Each of these 5 players has the potential for Gold Gloves, and Inciarte has one already in his young career. I like to think of this as the Tony LaRussa approach, seemingly acquire every player that hits for average, has a great glove and steals bases, and have a couple power hitters (see Jackson, Riley, and then Freddie, Matt Kemp) to round out a great lineup. The best way to score runs is to get on base. There will be more in-depth looks at each of our prospects coming up soon, but this is a great introduction to the well-oiled machine that is John Coppolella’s managed Braves. Things in Braves Country are really looking up, and I think this approach can and will get us to a sustained championship level in the next five years. The approach seems simple and obvious, aka, it’s not fucking rocket science. And if I’m wrong, screw you, I don’t care, it’s my blog, go Braves. Z Train P.S. - Coppy's on the phone with your bitch
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