Tommy V I'm going to continue doing the NFL futures next week but since college football starts in four days I decided I'd do some more. The year starts with an absolutely amazing slate of games like Portland State vs BYU (Go Mormons!) before slowing down next week culminating in the next game of the century snooze-fest that should be Alabama vs Florida State. All joking aside I'm glad football is about to be back in full swing even though I'm more of an NFL fan then a college football fan (read as Damn Yankee). Having a limited feel for the sport won't stop me at all when it comes to predicting winners, finding angles, and betting money so that's gives me all the accreditation I need. We already talked about all of this on the Loose Balls podcast but it was outside of the betting world so be sure to check that out as well! I also decided I'm not going to do the Heisman odds because I don't know enough about many of the candidates this year and it always seems like such a crap shoot for who's going to win. Anyways here are my picks. Atlantic Coast Conference - Florida State (+110) It pains me to write it but I just don't see any team catching up with Florida State this year. I expect heavy regressions from my beloved Clemson Tigers based on all the offensive personnel we lost from last year which puts us out of the running for top of the conference. The only other team I like in the Atlantic Division is Louisville, who at +600 have good odds but I still think Florida State gets the head to head win needed to make it to the ACC Championship. There's nobody in the Coastal that I like to beat them either but Virginia Tech is the most interesting at +700. I'd bet on the even odds since I think honestly they should be closer to -120 than +110 so take the money and run. South Eastern Conference - Alabama (-150) Another boring pick where you just take the favorite because the odds aren't that bad. If it was -200 I might honestly still recommend Alabama so -150 isn't that bad at all. I think this will be a fourth straight SEC Championship for Alabama because honestly the SEC is not that strong of a conference this year. I think Georgia and Florida are two very overrated teams that have no business being ranked over teams like VT and WVU that had much better years last year. The SEC West is much better than the East but I still don't love any of the teams to finish over Alabama this year. Auburn would be the best odds at +500 but that's still not high enough for me to bite on them. Yet again, take the money and run. Big 10 Conference - Penn State (+550) We talked about this on Loose Balls as well but I like Penn State to actually win the championship so giving them +550 odds just makes it all the more sweet. The hope is that Ohio State struggles this year and fails to beat Wisconsin/Oklahoma and also loses to Penn State. I think this team was deserving of making the Playoffs last year and showed in the Rose Bowl that they were a superior team to Ohio State in 2016 so. The other team I like is Wisconsin at +375 because I think they have the ability to beat Ohio State or Penn State and play in the easier Division. I'd get the bet in early on either of them because I expect the odds go down as we get into the season and see both of the teams play. Big 12 Conference - Oklahoma State (+300) I was surprised to see that the odds were so good for OK State with all the hype they've been getting especially around Mason Rudolph. The Cowboys were a very solid 10-3 last year and I think they'll be able to get around a now Bob Stoops-less Oklahoma team to "win" the Big 12. I think Oklahoma falls off because of the offensive personnel loss they've had together with the unexpected retirement of Stoops. I think its a possibility that Oklahoma gets blown out by Ohio St and the team really feels it for a while. This seems like a good mixture of value for the team and a possible scenario so I'd hop in on it. Pac 12 Conference - University of Southern California (+110) This one was a little harder because I do like the Washington Huskies as well but their odds just weren't good enough at +180 for me to take them. I think USC finally gets over the early season jitters since they're not playing Alabama and because they have a more than competent quarterback to lead them early on. I was shocked by how much better this team was when Sam Darnold came in and I think they could've given Washington a much harder time than Colorado in the Pac 12 Championship last year. I expect some regression too from Washington so I think these are excellent odds for the Trojans. A lot like Florida State the value is good at just a bit above even so go ahead and take them. National Champions - Alabama (+240) It's sad that my top two picks for this were Alabama and Florida State but that's just the state of college football right now. I'd actually parlay this bet with the SEC Championship one to make it +610 or so but if you can't this is still solid value. When I look into this I want to pick a team that I'm confident against every other favorite and Alabama is the only one that checks that box. I like Florida State at +750 but their defense was way below where they should have been last year and that gives me pause for picking them. This isn't like last year where Clemson and Alabama were even matches; I think Alabama is way out in front as the best team and +240 reflects that. I think the dominance continues until Nick Saban's deal with the Devil (unless he is the Devil?) ends which should be next year when he turn 66 and 6 months old hopefully. Overall these were some boring picks but it's tough to pick against teams like these in College Football where the favorites usually seem to win. I hope it's still an exciting season and playoffs but I just don't think we'll have Clemson to get in Alabama's way this year.
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Bradshaw2017 College Football Preseason Top 25
1. Alabama 2. Ohio State 3. Florida State 4. USC 5. Clemson 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Washington 9. Wisconsin 10. Oklahoma State 11. Michigan 12. Auburn 13. LSU 14. Stanford 15. Georgia 16. Louisville 17. Florida 18. Miami (Fla.) 19. South Florida 20. Kansas State 21. Virginia Tech 22. West Virginia 23. Texas 24. Washington State 25. Tennessee Look, usually the preseason rankings are a lot worse and I really don't have too much to complain about here. Nothing like a bunch of sports writers who get to watch a single period of the players warming up to decide which teams are gonna be good this year. But for real, this list is not that bad. Yeah you could move a few teams around a bit, but judging by last year and what players a lot of the teams still have, this is a fairly good ranking. Everything except for one spot on this list. Number 23, Texas. What the actual fuck were they thinking. Every single team ranked in the preseason top 25 won at least 8 games last year. How many did Texas win? Five. Five games... Thats it. Blame it on Charlie Strong, blame it on the staff, blame it on anything, but it doesn't change the fact that a group of guys that aren't going to be that much different this year could only find the drive to win five games. This team, who the AP is saying is worthy of a top 25 spot, lost to Kansas last year. Fucking Kansas. Their only other win last season was against an FCS team. But Luke! What about Tom Herman? He did great things at Houston. You're damn right he's a good coach. Houston was a great team for most of the time he was there, but is he a good enough coach to turn them into some superstar team worthy of a top 25 spot? Not unless he's the second coming, and according to the AP top 25, he is. They don't deserve the spot at all, but at least if they're gonna be in there, put them at 25. You're showing a shit ton of disrespect to Mike Leech and Washington State. Not saying that they're the best team in the world, but come on, Texas? Mike Leech and Washington State will probably put up 10,000 yards passing per game and go on to an 8-5 season. More than Texas will do this year. But Luke! Look at all the talent they have on their roster, its Texas? Fuck off. Seriously. Where was all of that talent last year? Guess how many teams they beat out of those five wins last year that had a winning record. One. And it was Baylor with a 7-6 record. I don't think you count Baylor as a good win. Especially after all of the shit that has happened there. So please go on about how they have so much talent. You can be as talented as you want, but you don't lose to fucking Kansas. So for real, AP top 25, good job for the most part with the preseason poll. I'm not silent about how much I hate preseason rankings, but for once this wasn't too bad. But for all the Texas writers out there that voted to put Texas in at Number 23, get your head out your ass. Unless Tom Herman has some sort of Angels In The Outfield type shit happen every game, then Texas is not gonna be some miraculous turn around story. Tom Herman is a great coach, but he isn't a miracle worker. Z TrainWhile this may seem like a hot topic in the NCAA the last few years, I thought we all were on the side of the fence conceding that the NCAA was in the wrong, but I was very obviously wrong on that assumption. I write this after getting in a massive argument the other night with a couple people about this exact thing: paying college athletes. I couldn't convince anyone I was talking with of this. So now I'm here to convince you. For the sake of addressing my bias, I am much closer with aspects of college football than other sports, so this blog admittedly will probably be skewed towards football. As the biggest cash cow for the NCAA, I think it's a pretty fair central focus of the argument. Either way, I think I'll strike a common chord across all student-athletes with my points. Go to your fridge and grab some ice because these takes are about to get hot. CFB players put in two-a-days every day of the week during the school year. They're virtually under control by the team all Friday, Saturday and Sunday during the season, with the occasional rest day, still littered with film and "mental reps". In the offseason, it's camps, spring practice, weightlifting, and if you want to be a big-time contributor, days off are frowned on by the competitive culture surrounding college sports. Count up the hours however you want, playing a college sport is a full-time job. Go ask any athlete if they have free time. They'll laugh. Every single one of them. Between practice, school, travel, studying, sleeping (they'll laugh at that too) and everything else, there's not much time left in your day. The "student" portion of student-athletes gets a bad rap, whether it's from a big news bomb like Chapel Hill's fake classes, or just the seemingly common knowledge of some athlete at an SEC school skating by in classes. I won't sit here and pretend athletes don't have advantages (tutors, food, etc.), but do they outweigh the disadvantages of having a full-time job? Some athletes are even encouraged to pick easier majors to have more time for sports. While I agree the culture and encouragement is wrong, can you disagree? Could I have performed to my classmates' standards if I was doing what these athletes were doing? Hell no. Get out of here. Yes, plenty of people work while in school, and I don't think anyone who has done that would wish that upon anyone. No one should have to do that. Yet that is their proposed ticket for an education, inevitably diluted because of athletic commitments. Now to the crux of my argument. Of course we know that many of the top-shelf players come to school on a scholarship. Most of these same athletes will get free housing and free food. So what does that cost per player? By my estimations, that's about $30-40,000 per year for education, room and board (out-of-state is crap, just a markup for grant/tax purposes), and other benefits for special services, like health care, facilities, gyms, tutoring and food. I think a safe bet here would be about $10-20,000 but call it whatever you want for contingency purposes. If I was famous, I'd be sure to call up Coach Harbaugh and ask for the number, but (for now) No Brainer doesn't have that kind of pull. That sounds like a lot right? Well sure, but that's a pretty typical investment companies make for entry-level employees. A basic starting salary, on-site services and health benefits, often for your family as well. But here are the two key differences between your job and a starting captain linebacker for a National Championship team: 1. The athletes generate millions and millions of dollars for their university and the NCAA for their image and likeness.
Millions and millions into billions of dollars. This being said, what entry-level position can look up and say "wow, those millions of dollars can be traced directly back to me"? Likely not many. And if you had made this kind of contribution (I'm sure your projects are/were really important and expensive, but that doesn't mean "directly"), do you not think you would be compensated handsomely with a promotion and hefty raise? What job can directly trace millions of dollars back to themselves and what they did, and the "fair" compensation is what's listed above? Put yourself in that place and try to tell me that you would be OK with that. I'm sure if you disagree, you're very noble. But if that opportunity actually presented itself to you, you would demand at least a cut of that money, and you would probably have a pretty successful court case if it came to it. 2. Athletes have a maximum of 5 years and then they're told to beat it, regardless of the massive, lasting impact they've made on a university This is my favorite part of the whole thing. The athletes get the benefits above for a maximum of 5 years, usually for 3 or 4 if they're one of the top contributors to the NCAA's wealth (see Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Reggie Bush, Sammy Watkins, Sidney Rice, and other iconic players who stayed 3 years), and then they're gone. We just conveniently forget about the massive impact Watson made at Clemson after he's gone. Or Ben Boulware. Or Mike Williams, Artavis Scott or Carlos Watkins. Or Charlie Whitehurst, Tajh Boyd, Deandre Hopkins in years past. Think about all of the talented athletes who will come or have come to Clemson because of these guys' success, generating the university and NCAA more and more money off of someone's likeness while they aren't even there. Forget only Clemson: How many fucking CFB commercials have there been with Tim Tebow (class of 2009) on the cover of it? Purdue fans still talk about Drew Brees at every opportunity, his image has carried their football program fifteen years later. Athletes don't even reap the fair benefits while they're in school, let alone the huge financial boost directly from their success that happens in the years to come, especially troublesome for those top-level contributors that could never translate to the pros where their payday awaited. So stop comparing a normal job with fair compensation to college athletics. It's just incorrect, and there's no other way to slice it or dice it, regardless of your "perspective". Google what the NCAA made last year (I did it for you). It's a massive entertainment business. This is a massive case of employee exploitation squarely in the public eye, the modern day equivalent of industrial robber barons (sound the hot take siren). Don't let the NCAA feed you their flaming pile of crap about how it's for "students" and "school is the main priority." In what world do you live in if you think that's true? It's about making money, what it's always about in the world. I agree that shouldn't be the case, but that ship sailed with fucking evolution. Look around you. Physically dominant alpha males (and females) have ran society since the beginning of time, and don't feign ignorance like you haven't known that your whole life. While I, not a collegiate athlete, knows there is plenty of notable merit to all kinds of talents and professions, the previous fact is unarguable, whether it feels cozy in your brain or not. If you disagree or are trying to poke holes in my argument, that's fair and I invite it. I know I'm right about this, and would love to think about any potential holes further so that I can destroy you better in the future. A lot of people a lot smarter than me have made this case, and I'm sure can do a better job of defending and explaining it than I can. My opinion about any disagreement is this: you're a salty bitch. You're mad that these athletes have continually beat the system. You don't want them to be fairly compensated because you think they've already benefitted so much from their talents, and you view that as unfair, even though you, I and everyone know that's not true. My advice if you're mad about this blog: reevaluate. Celebrate other's success. If you want a better system, propose it and act on it if it fires you up that much. If not, shut your mouth, and reevaluate. It's fucking sports. Give these guys and girls what they've earned and let's move forward from there. This take is so hot that I think I fried my laptop. Z Train OUT. BradshawLook I get it, its the offseason, the NBA finals are done, the NHL finals are done and baseball doesn't really matter until September/October. In the sports world, its boring. But why in the hell does every football sports writer feel the need to post a Preseason rankings list? In the college football world, spring practice is portrayed as this major thing for teams that will give a good look at where they are at. But does it give us any real insight into how the team is going to be in the regular season? Probably not. Teams can tell you what they want about why Spring Practice is important . It's a chance to introduce some new stuff for next season and get a good look at where the team is at. But lets honest here, what is going to stick after 15 practices and then 3 long months until Fall camp? Probably not much.
In actuality, Spring practice is in place purely for the fact that it makes sure the players don't get fat and to make sure they don't do anything dumb. You can't honestly tell me that without any sort of organized practice during the off-season, that a bunch of 18-22 year olds, who just went through hell in the fall, would make it through the off-season without an arrest or an injury. Nope. So we bring in Spring practice. Alright makes sense. The issue with Spring practice is that journalists try to put together some rankings (that will all be shit come week 2 of the season) that are there purely because they have nothing to write about. Those rankings are all terrible and mean absolutely nothing. Because these rankings are all shit, I'm not gonna write a blog ranking the teams in College Football. It is just too damn early and if anyone tells you otherwise, then they are dead wrong. One thing we can rank are the games that I really want to watch each week for the 2017-2018 season. So lets start out weeks 1-4. Week 1: Alabama vs. Florida State How could you not be excited about this game. Of course Alabama is going to have nothing but 5 star recruits on the field again. Florida State lost Dalvin Cook, but they should be great too. Both teams have so much to prove in this opening game. Alabama is coming of the loss to Clemson in the National Championship and Florida State is coming off of a disappointing 10-3 season. Most teams would kill for a 10-3 season, but when you're Florida State, expectations are so much higher. This game could start Alabama off already down and having to fight back. You know what I would like to see? Alabama not in the playoff again. If they're the best team, so be it, but I'm tired of seeing them every year. Florida State will for sure put up a great fight and they have a solid defense. Alabama's offense could be better this year as Jalen Hurt is a sophomore. This game will either be extremely close or a blowout. Regardless, two premier football programs in the brand new Mercedes-Benz stadium in Atlanta is a hell of a start to the college football season. Other Notable Games: NC State vs. South Carolina, BYU vs. LSU, West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech, Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech, Texas A&M vs. UCLA Week 2: Georgia vs. Notre Dame The shit games you have the first week are definitely made up for in week 2. Like come on you have Georgia vs. Notre Dame and Oklahoma vs. Ohio State in the same week. These are some pretty damn awesome games and the only reason I have the Georgia vs. Notre Dame game as the better one is that I have an ungodly hate towards Ohio State and Oklahoma. Its like Hitler and Osama Bin Laden playing each other. I hope both teams go 0-12 this year. But back to the game at hand. Georgia has a lot to prove this year after a pretty mediocre start to the Kirby Smart era. If they can get their offense out of the toilet, then Georgia could be a real playoff contender this year. This game has the potential to be one of the best games of the year. Notre Dame I'm sure will be extremely overrated again this year, but they will still more than likely put up some sort of fight against Georgia. I mean when you're Brian Kelly and you go 4-8 the season before, you either have a damn good season or Notre Dame sends you packing. With Chip Long as the new OC, expect something better out of Notre Dame. Other Notable Games: East Carolina vs. West Virginia, Pittsburgh vs. Penn State, Auburn vs. Clemson, Stanford vs. USC, Oklahoma vs. Ohio State Week 3: Miami vs. Florida State The games this week are pretty "eh." But when you have a rivalry game and a team thats gonna be good like Florida State, plus a team that is on the rise like Miami, you can damn well be sure that I wanna watch that. Florida State was absolutely a good team last year. They pretty much shit the bed against Louisville and made Lamar Jackson look like he actually deserved the Heisman, but apart from that game, if a few plays went there way the rest of the season, they could have had a shot at the playoff. They lost Dalvin Cook, but we'll see what happens there. The rest of the team is still stacked. Miami is on the rise after improving last year. Mark Richt is a hell of a coach, so don't expect to see Miami down for too long. If Miami can get their shit together, this has the potential to be a fantastic game. Other Notable Games: Oklahoma State vs. Pittsburgh, Notre Dame vs. Boston College, Clemson vs. Louisville, Tennessee vs. Florida, Ole Miss vs. Cal Week 4: Oklahoma vs. Baylor Who knows what the hell Baylor is gonna be like this year. Do they deserve to have a football program anymore? Probably not. Do they have one? Yes. So much sketchy stuff going on there that should never have happened. But they still might have a good football team, so I wanna watch this game. They have a new coach, Matt Rhule, who was at Temple before. If you remember Temple came out of nowhere and was actually a good team for the last two seasons. If he can do the same thing at Baylor, they might can turn the team around. I mean they play in the Big 12, where if your defense has a pulse, you can probably be ok. Oklahoma is Oklahoma and they are an elite football program. Baker Mayfield is back and although I hate his face and most everything he does, he's not a terrible quarterback. They did lose Joe Mixon, which is probably a good thing. I'm not really too in favor of having people who knock out women on your team. We'll see what happens with Baylor in the first few weeks, so I might change my opinion about this game later on. Other Notable Games: Virginia vs. Boise State, UCLA vs. Stanford, Arkansas vs. Texas A&M, TCU vs. Oklahoma State, Notre Dame vs. Michigan State I'll be talking about weeks 5-8 next, so be on the lookout. We've got another exciting season of College Football on the way and I think everyone can agree that we're ready to get out of the off season. BradshawEvery damn year you have a few teams that the asshats over at ESPN and throughout the sports world decide are always gonna be good. Its ridiculous and I don't know how they can keep ranking teams high every year when they are consistently shit. Look I know that some of these teams were powerhouses at one point, but banking on how good they were 30 years ago means shit in the world of college football. Saying oh they won a championship in 1985, so obviously they're gonna be good every year following, is like saying Blockbuster had a successful business, so movie rentals are a solid investment. You're full of shit if you think that. So with all of this, I'm here to rank the top 10 most consistently overrated teams in College Football. 10. Virginia Tech Frank Beamer is a saint. Lets get that out of the way first. But that doesn't mean that his beloved Virginia Tech should be ranked high year after year. Justin Fuente is doing some great things with that program and he took them to an ACC championship in his first season as head coach. Thats impressive and I'm sure they will start deserving the high preseason rankings pretty soon, but for now they're still always overrated. 9. UCLA Josh Rosen is supposed to be the number 1 draft pick next year, but look what happened, he got hurt at UCLA and then decided to transfer. Doesn't look good for them this year. When you're as big a school as UCLA, it seems like you should be able to recruit and at least win a conference title every now and then. Nope, no conference title since 1998 and no National Championship since 1954. For a team thats supposed to be good every season, they put up some super mediocre seasons. Last years 4-8 record counts as one of those. 8. Nebraska Ah shit Bo Pelleni era Nebraska football. Those were some good times, but since then what the hell happened. Sure, they put up some really good teams every now and then, but they should never be ranked as high as they are every preseason. Expect to see them in the top 25 preseason when they probably shouldn't be. 7. Texas Ah yeah a perennial football powerhouse. You're Texas and you should be able to recruit better than any team in the country. If you can't recruit when you are one of the richest football schools in the country, then what the hell are you doing. Texas is one of the best recruiting grounds in the country and Charlie Strong couldn't do it. Ever since the last few years of the Mack Brown era, it seems like Texas has just fallen further into mediocrity. If you get Tom Herman and you can't be good again, then you might be cursed. We'll see. 6. Ole Miss Who knew that paying your players and breaking all kinds of rules wouldn't lead to any real NCAA punishments. Well when you're Ole Miss this can happen for you. Regardless of how much they pay their players, money doesn't make you a good team. Ole Miss is the poster child of this. Sure they had a good season one year, but they legit have not won a conference title since 1963. So if you think they're gonna be great this season, you're probably dead wrong. Not even Chad "Swag" Kelly could lead them to glory. 5. Miami Ahhh shit they made like two 30 for 30's about Miami football. Oh wait that means nothing in terms of how good they actually are. The Jimmy Johnson era hurricanes and then the 2001 National Championship teams were absolutely some great football teams. But since then what have they done? Absolutely nothing. Moving out of the Orange Bowl was one of the worst ideas they ever had. Oh yeah, people would love to drive an hour to bum-fuck nowhere to see Miami play football. Dead wrong. For a team that hired Al Golden and thought it would be a good idea, they don't deserve to actually be good for at least 5 years. Sure they have Mark Richt and things might be looking up, but right now, they are still overrated. 4. West Virginia West Virginia moved to the Big 12 so everyone thought oh this is it. A team with a defense that isn't made up of 4th grade little league football players should be able to win a Big 12 championship right? Nope, they still couldn't do it. I loved watching West Virginia play during the Rich Rodriguez era, and they were a pretty damn football team, but since 2011 they haven't done much of anything. The main reason they're on my list is that they should be able to beat every team in the Big 12. Their defense has a pulse. Big upside to them, but they just couldn't do it. They'll probably be ranked high again this year, and they'll probably suck again. 3. Tennessee Holy shit is it 1998 and is Peyton Manning the quarterback at Tennessee? No its not, so why the hell are we still living like it is. This team is consistently ranked preseason with people saying they are gonna win the SEC. Well they haven't done that since 1998 either so for now lets stop blowing Tennessee and not give them credit for stuff they haven't done. I thought last year was supposed to be their year, but 9-4 and a Music City Bowl... For those Tennessee fans out there getting mad about this, at least you can watch your boy Peyton on Papa John's commercials. 2. Georgia Georgia hasn't won an SEC championship since 2005 and they haven't won a National Championship since 1980. It seems like they're gonna be good every year and I fall into that trap sometimes thinking that this might be Georgia's year. When you actually go and look at the seasons, they just can't win championships. I might be biting my tongue since they could be really damn good this year, but for now they're still overrated as hell. 1. Notre Dame Where do I even start. Notre Dame hasn't won a National Championship since 1988, but I swear if you ask Lou Holtz, this year is "Notre Dame's year." Thats the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Every damn year. Come on, you think that he would give it up, but I guess not. Some of you are gonna shit on me and say oh but Notre Dame went to the National Championship game in 2012. Yeah sure they did. How did that work out? They got absolutely nailed by Alabama 42-14. Not even Manti Te'o's fake girlfriend could tell me that they weren't overrated. Last year they had an extremely mediocre record of 4-8, but who knows, they'll probably be ranked top 5 in the preseason polls. So for all you people out there that are making the preseason rankings, please dear god actually look at the facts and stop ranking teams just because of what they used to be. Thanks. Bradshaw |