Schmells In the days leading up to Fox 25: Weidman vs. Gastelum, I asked around to see if people were excited for Saturday's fight card. To my surprise, I found the vast majority of fans were completely overlooking the event. Maybe it is because Mayweather and McGregor are stealing the spotlight, or perhaps the long awaited return of Jon Jones looming on the horizon, but regardless these fights slipped through the cracks. Although there may not have been any super stars fighting, every fighter on the main card was ranked in the top 15 of their division. The prelims were full of highlights, rising prospects, and potentially washed up fighters. Not to mention the main event, which held huge implications for all of the top middle weights going forward. Let's examine the card a little closer and look at the overall winners and losers of this Fox event. Winner: Patrick Cummins This man is having a great year. After almost a year layoff, Patrick Cummins stepped back into the octagon in April and won a majority decision against Jan Blachowicz. He made it through the fight with no significant injuries, which allowed him to book another fight immediately. Three months later he was poised across the cage from his long time friend , Gian Villante. It was not an easy fight by any means; Cummins had to fight through getting rocked a couple times, as well as an accidental head butt in the first round. Despite all that, he was able to keep his cool, trust his conditioning, and maintain his striking technique. Cummins is known as an elite wrestler; however, I was impressed by his stand up game. His jab was working, and he was landing good combinations. Patrick is 2-0 in 2017, and my bet is that he will be looking to fight again before the end of the year. Loser: Patrick Cummins' face Cummins may have won the fight, but he looks like he lost some sort of bar room brawl. At least he is in good spirits about it. And yes, that is a missing tooth. Winner: Eryk Anders I'll say it: Anders can throw a hell of a straight right hand. This guy is just a winner. First off, he was a starting linebacker on the 2009 National Championship Alabama football team. He decided that wasn't enough of a physical test, so he transitioned into competitive fighting. He was 8-0 before this fight, but his opponent, Rafael Natal, represented a significant step up in competition for him. How did Anders respond? With a first round knock out of a Brazilian legend. Admittedly this is the first fight I've watched of Anders, but he struck me as a bit of a one trick pony. Everything about his stance told me that he was looking to throw his right hand and knock his opponent out. That's all well and good, but to break through into the upper echelon of the middle weight division, he is going to need to diversify his arsenal. Congrats to Eryk, and I expect to see him improve in every fight. Loser: Dennis Bermudez Everything about this fight told me that Bermudez would dominate his opponent, Darren Elkins. Elkins is known for his durability, AKA he can get punched in the head a lot and keep fighting. He's an elite grappler that can hold his own on his feet, but doesn't typically have that explosive power to finish fights. Bermudez is a great wrestler, has slick boxing, and has faced much more talent than his opponent. After it was all said and done, Elkins was able to defeat Bermudez via a somewhat controversial split decision. It looked as though Elkins had worked on his stand up a lot, and was generally able to dominate the clinch and grappling exchanges. Bermudez has now lost two in a row, and is 9-5 since being called to the UFC. He has lost to every top ten opponent in the past three years, and after this loss he should be is desperation mode to get a win under his belt. Winner: Chris Weidman Chris Weidman is the true champion of this fight card. Weidman started out his UFC career with a 13 fight win streaks, dominating legends of the sport like Vitor Belfort, Lyoto Machida, and Anderson Silva. Then came the Luke Rockhold fight. Chris threw an ill-advised spinning back kick, which ultimately lead to him being finished and losing his belt. This kicked off a three fight losing streak, some of which were controversial, and all of which he had a chance to win. That's the fight game though: anything can happen. The match up against Kelvin Gastelum might be considered a tune-up fight by Chris' standards. Although Kelvin is ranked 8th in the division, Chris still considers himself the champion and only wants to fight the best of the best. Well, just as expected, Chris dominated Kelvin at every turn. He showed of his elite grappling, fought long, and didn't stand straight in front of Gastelum. It is important to note that Weidman got dropped for the first time in his career; he stood in front of Kelvin for a split second and got caught with an overhand left, but was able to recover within seconds. Weidman finished Gastelum in the third found via arm-triangle choke. Here's hoping that Weidman gets back to his winning ways and that this is the first step back to title contention.
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Z TrainUFC 213 Predictions Especially with the Lawler-Cerrone cancellation, this is one of those cards that the douchebag MMA purists are all going to love from the get-go, and more general fans of the sport kind of look at as “Meh”, not a ton of big-time names. But for the sake of this blog, I’m going to put on my MMA purist mask and go to work. Seriously though, these fights have the potential for some classic matchups, two title fights (even if one is these bullshit interim titles the UFC loves now), a rubber match between two big time heavyweights, and all-in-all, a lot of really talented strikers on display in primetime Pay-Per-View. Nunes vs Shevchenko Bantamweight Championship Line: -102 Nunes, -118 Shevchenko (7/5) Both of these ladies are the real deal and have been absolutely murdering all of their competition as of late, but in slightly different methods. Nunes is a stand up and beat ‘em up fighter. You saw that when she brutally destroyed Ronda Rousey, and that’s a perfect showing of what she does best. She’s here to throw bombs, and has ended 10 of her 14 wins with some type of knockout, only letting 1 win go to a decision. That’s some serious power. Shevchenko is a different fighter. While she’s got solid boxing and kickboxing, she tends to dominate fights on the ground with great jiu jitsu, wrestling and grappling, all stemming from her superior strength. Compared to the other fights on the main card, this is the most likely to get to the ground at some point, as Valentina is probably the most talented wrestler on the card. I like her style a lot, she simply overpowers the other fighters, and she gets the nod as the more well-rounded fighter. This is a pretty interesting matchup, as the fight could be on the feet for five rounds, on the ground or in the clinch for a long period. The Lioness will definitely feel disrespected that the line is so close, she strikes me as the sort that loves to keep a chip on her shoulder. I'm excited to see how this plays out, even with the seemingly orchestrated "beef" these fighters have had in the lead up to the fight. I think whoever comes away with the title will win the battle in these 2 aspects: 1. Takedowns Nunes is a good grappler as well, but Shevchenko must dominate the ground and clinch, her clear strengths, to win. While she throws good kicks to the leg and body, she cannot and should not stand up with Nunes for a long time, so threatening with takedown shots are the best way to throw the Lioness's rhythm off and shift the fight into her favor. If Nunes can take this away and keep the fight on the feet, the Russian is in serious trouble. 2. Stamina The longer the fight goes, the more you have to give the edge to Shevchenko. Like I said earlier, only one of the Brazilians wins has come to decision, compared to 4 of Shevchenko’s. Her stamina is tremendous, and her style of fighting is favored for going longer rather than the high-risk high-reward haymaker boxing that Nunes often employs. This in mind, I’m going Shevchenko. I think she’s better-suited for these long title fights. As long as she doesn’t employ the idiotic Ronda Rousey gameplan of bull rushing the best boxer in the division, she’s my pick. Winner: Shevchenko in 4th round finish Romero vs Whittaker Interim Middleweight Championship Line: +104 Romero, -124 Whittaker (7/5) This is the fight the purists will love most. These guys are both guys who look for the knockout and can throw absolute bombs. At 38 years old, I have no idea how Yoel Romero looks the way he does (sterioids). The Cuban has been on a tear, an 8 fight win streak against the likes of Derek Brunson (who murdered Dan Kelly a few weeks ago), Tim Kennedy, Lyoto Machida, Jacare Souza and Chris Weidman. That is crazy. No one in their right mind wants to fight this 10-KO animal. …unless you’re a crazy Kiwi, clearly not in his right mind. Bobby Knuckles is equally as much of an animal. He’s on a 7-fight win streak, also taking out Brunson and Souza on his way there, with his last loss coming in welterweight to the Wonderboy, Steven Thompson (shout out Greenville). Whittaker called out this crazy bastard in his last fight and he’s getting what he asked for. And I don’t think I could be more excited. These guys aren’t exactly the household names (yet) that other top fighters are, but they are just as talented as any champion you’ll see. This fight is two unstoppable forces over the last few years hitting head on, and I couldn’t be more excited for it. Both are fantastic strikers and great in the clinch, but I think Whittaker holds the edge in other areas. He’s more well-rounded on the ground and has much better jiu-jitsu than the Cuban. Saying this, I expect this fight to be on the feet for most, if not all, of it. They both love to throw bombs, and this fight really could just come down to one punch. I could see this going either way. I understand Whittaker as the early favorite as the more well-rounded fighter, but like I said, one punch could be the deciding factor. Just get ready for a throwdown, and watch their highlights here to get pumped for it. It’ll be interesting to see if this fight goes into the later rounds, but I don’t think it will. I guess I’ll take the younger fighter here, but it’s nearly a wash in my brain. Whoever wins, they're going to murder Michael Bisping, so just prepare yourself for that ass-kicking in the next few months. Winner: Whittaker in 2nd round KO Werdum vs Overeem
Heavyweight Line: +105 Werdum, -125 Overeem (7/5) Just look at this British Behemoth. Who doesn't love a good rubber match. The most recent fight between the two was in 2011 in Strikeforce where Overeem took the win. Werdum won the first matchup. This could be a potential bounceback fight for both fighters, having serious implications for each of their careers. The winner of this is likely in line for another title shot, the loser could see their career in a little bit of a downward spiral, losing twice quickly to the top talent in the division that each of them have reigned with for a while now. The Brazilian, Werdum, bounced back from a tough title loss to Stipe Miocic with a domination of Travis Browne, right back where he left off from his 6-fight win streak. Alistair is on a good run himself, winning 5 out of 6, his only loss coming in that fight where the champion Miocic caught him after Overeem looked dominant. I honestly think Overeem has an edge in the more important aspects of this fight. He’s the better striker, a great grappler, and throws some of the best knees I’ve ever seen. Werdum has the edge in stamina as the much smaller man, but I don’t think his jiu-jitsu advantage will help him if he can’t get the massive Brit to the ground (77% takedown defense). This all being said, I like Werdum here. What the fuck Z? Did you read your own blog? Withhold your judgment, ye small minded bitches. Overeem is 42-15. This will be his 58th professional fight. FIFTY-EIGHTH. That is unreal. Most long-tenured, veteran fighters don't see much more than 30 fights, 58 is an anomaly. We’ve seen bouts that he is clearly a better fighter and is dominating the fight, but one punch on the chin can seriously stun him and potentially knock him out. We saw it against Miocic, and I think we could see it again here. How many times has there been a set of awful KO's for fighters on the wrong side of 35 (Liddell, Ortiz, Jackson, etc.) that have effectively ended their well-acclaimed careers? No one is rooting for that, but you have to have this in the back of your mind when guys who are professionally punched in the face hit this age. Especially in the heavyweight division, one well-timed punch can swing all of the momentum in favor of the guy who’s been on the wrong end of everything. Werdum isn’t exactly a knockout artist, but if he can stun Overeem and get him to the ground, he can finish the fight with finishes or punches. This pick is a little off-kilter with little logic, but I’m going to take Werdum. Winner: Werdum in 3rd round finish Pettis vs Miller Lightweight Line: +195 Miller, -230 Pettis (7/3) Poor Showtime. Ever since getting the lightweight belt and the even more lucrative Wheaties cover, he’s succumbed to the former LW champion curse that we’ve seen plague Dos Anjos and Alvarez recently. It seems like everybody to hold that lightweight belt has just not been able to find their footing after losing the belt (watch out Conor). He’s lost 4 of his last 5 after looking unstoppable on the way to that title, and he’s looked very, very stoppable of late. He’s just come out really flat, and even in the win versus Charles Oliveira, he looked a shadow of the Showtime we were used to seeing (wall kick link here). Jim Miller has fought in 26 fucking UFC fights. That’s insane. It feels like he’s been around forever, and after a tough 4 out of 5 loss stretch, he’s rebounded to winning 3 out of 4 in solid wins, only losing in a controversial majority decision in a Fight of the Night against Dustin Poirier. We know what Pettis is capable of. He’s an elite striker and can be devastatingly quick. But which Pettis will we see? The Lightweight Champion or the guy who let Edson Barboza beat his leg into a tuna? Jim Miller is a guy that puts in a solid performance every time he steps in the octagon, and we know he’s going to be professional and take care of business. Pettis is back at lightweight after a featherweight bout where Holloway looked dominant (and Pettis missed weight), so maybe he’ll be a bit more comfortable. So which Pettis do you think will be there on July 8th? All respect to Jim Miller, but on paper and from Pettis’ record, this shouldn’t even be close. Miller is tremendous, but Pettis’s talent is just on another level….but I’m still picking Miller. I think Pettis is in his own head. As a master of getting in one’s own head, you can tell when other guys are battling themselves. It’s tough to watch, especially when it’s to someone who’s so prolific and talented (who am I talking about, me or Pettis, you decide). Hopefully Showtime snaps out of it after a few off-fights and gets back to his winning ways, but I think Miller capitalizes, and Jim is just not a guy you want to see in the octagon when you’re not sure of yourself. We all wouldn't be surprised with a highlight reel KO from Pettis, but bet the underdog because Jim always has legitimate upset potential, especially under the circumstances. Winner: Miller in unanimous decision Significant Fights: Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes (-700) def Omielanczuk (+525) Heavyweight: Aleksei Oleinik (+170) def Travis Browne (-200) Welterweight: Chad Laprise (-555) def Brian Camozzi (+425) TUF 25 Finale (7/7): Michael Johnson (-165) def Justin Gaethje (+145) Z TrainNothing weirder than watching two dudes (or two chicks) kicking each other's asses on the Sabbath. But I'm not complaining. So here goes: UFC Fight Night 112 Predictions Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Lee Lee has been talking a lot of weird shit, even about Chiesa's mom. He's really not a great trash-talker, but in fighting and wrestling alike, you gotta put yourself out there. I think this favors Chiesa and gives him even more motivation. He's got a good motor because he doesn't carry nearly as much muscle. I like his striking, love his grappling, and he's got solid jiu-jitsu. Kevin is a ground-and-pound, wrestling powerhouse. His key to victory is getting Chiesa on the ground and controlling. If he can't control the fight with take-down threats and wrestling, he'll lose. Look to make sure he doesn't drop his hands, because Chiesa will absolutely take advantage with his superior reach to tag that jaw. If this fight goes deep, favor Chiesa and his motor. I just think he's too well-rounded for this. I also have money on him. Take that as you will. Winner: Chiesa in 4th round finish Tim Boetsch vs Johny Hendricks Poor Johny. He missed weight. Again. It's a bummer to watch this happen to the former champ, but I guess that's just sports. On paper, "Big Rig" has every edge. He's a more polished boxer with great footwork and is solid on the ground (All-American collegiate wrestler) and in the clinch. Boetsch is on the wrong side of 35, but as a former college wrestler himself, you know he's strong and 20 professional MMA wins is no joke. So Hendricks is a no brainer (shout out), right? My issue is this: Missing a weight cut for the third time in a row has got to weigh on a fighter. This is their life's blood (literally), and for a guy as professional as Hendricks, it's got to get to his head. Boetsch is a powerhouse who I think can pounce on this uncertainty that is plaguing Hendricks. He can throw some shots and has serious knockout potential. I'm rooting for Johny and think he can get over this mental mountain in his home state of Oklahoma, but it's gonna be tough. Sticking with my gut and going with my man. Winner: Hendricks in a unanimous decision. Felice Herrig vs Justine Kish This is an interesting one. Herrig is the underdog, but as a very well-rounded, experienced fighter I think this fight is hers. Kish is no slouch, and very well-rounded herself. But I got money on Herrig. I think she has the edge in wrestling and on the ground, and I think she'll use that to her advantage. Winner: Herrig in a 2nd round finish Joachim Christensen vs Dominick Reyes The classic up-and-comer vs the talented, wiley veteran. This is always a matchup the UFC makes with it's "gatekeepers" (gotta google this one) and the guys they think could be special. I like Reyes here. The guy can throw with the best of them, and he's undefeated. Christensen is an awesome fighter, and still can compete at 38 years old. But that 38 year old jaw is going to have to stand up to a 205-pound, younger Reyes throwing some serious heat. If he can pull some classic veteran moves on the feet and in the clinch, Christensen can pull this out. But I think this could be a highlight reel knockout. Winner: Reyes in 1st Round KO Tim Means vs Alex Garcia I love Tim Means. He's a fucking UFC fighter and his last name has "Mean" in it. Cool name, if only he had a cooler nickname/crazier eyes than The Dean of Mean Keith Jardine. Anyways, I love Means. I like his work in the clinch, and think he can keep the muscular, powerful Garcia at a distance with his long frame. I think he out-veterans him this fight. But don't be surprised if Garcia knocks him out if Means gets to close to that right hook sweet spot. Winner: Means in a unanimous decision BJ Penn vs Dennis Siver You should just spend this time looking up BJ Penn highlights and not watching these two 38 year olds fight. Don't let this BJ be the BJ you remember. Winner: Siver in 1st round KO Z Train |