Tommy V I'm going to continue doing the NFL futures next week but since college football starts in four days I decided I'd do some more. The year starts with an absolutely amazing slate of games like Portland State vs BYU (Go Mormons!) before slowing down next week culminating in the next game of the century snooze-fest that should be Alabama vs Florida State. All joking aside I'm glad football is about to be back in full swing even though I'm more of an NFL fan then a college football fan (read as Damn Yankee). Having a limited feel for the sport won't stop me at all when it comes to predicting winners, finding angles, and betting money so that's gives me all the accreditation I need. We already talked about all of this on the Loose Balls podcast but it was outside of the betting world so be sure to check that out as well! I also decided I'm not going to do the Heisman odds because I don't know enough about many of the candidates this year and it always seems like such a crap shoot for who's going to win. Anyways here are my picks. Atlantic Coast Conference - Florida State (+110) It pains me to write it but I just don't see any team catching up with Florida State this year. I expect heavy regressions from my beloved Clemson Tigers based on all the offensive personnel we lost from last year which puts us out of the running for top of the conference. The only other team I like in the Atlantic Division is Louisville, who at +600 have good odds but I still think Florida State gets the head to head win needed to make it to the ACC Championship. There's nobody in the Coastal that I like to beat them either but Virginia Tech is the most interesting at +700. I'd bet on the even odds since I think honestly they should be closer to -120 than +110 so take the money and run. South Eastern Conference - Alabama (-150) Another boring pick where you just take the favorite because the odds aren't that bad. If it was -200 I might honestly still recommend Alabama so -150 isn't that bad at all. I think this will be a fourth straight SEC Championship for Alabama because honestly the SEC is not that strong of a conference this year. I think Georgia and Florida are two very overrated teams that have no business being ranked over teams like VT and WVU that had much better years last year. The SEC West is much better than the East but I still don't love any of the teams to finish over Alabama this year. Auburn would be the best odds at +500 but that's still not high enough for me to bite on them. Yet again, take the money and run. Big 10 Conference - Penn State (+550) We talked about this on Loose Balls as well but I like Penn State to actually win the championship so giving them +550 odds just makes it all the more sweet. The hope is that Ohio State struggles this year and fails to beat Wisconsin/Oklahoma and also loses to Penn State. I think this team was deserving of making the Playoffs last year and showed in the Rose Bowl that they were a superior team to Ohio State in 2016 so. The other team I like is Wisconsin at +375 because I think they have the ability to beat Ohio State or Penn State and play in the easier Division. I'd get the bet in early on either of them because I expect the odds go down as we get into the season and see both of the teams play. Big 12 Conference - Oklahoma State (+300) I was surprised to see that the odds were so good for OK State with all the hype they've been getting especially around Mason Rudolph. The Cowboys were a very solid 10-3 last year and I think they'll be able to get around a now Bob Stoops-less Oklahoma team to "win" the Big 12. I think Oklahoma falls off because of the offensive personnel loss they've had together with the unexpected retirement of Stoops. I think its a possibility that Oklahoma gets blown out by Ohio St and the team really feels it for a while. This seems like a good mixture of value for the team and a possible scenario so I'd hop in on it. Pac 12 Conference - University of Southern California (+110) This one was a little harder because I do like the Washington Huskies as well but their odds just weren't good enough at +180 for me to take them. I think USC finally gets over the early season jitters since they're not playing Alabama and because they have a more than competent quarterback to lead them early on. I was shocked by how much better this team was when Sam Darnold came in and I think they could've given Washington a much harder time than Colorado in the Pac 12 Championship last year. I expect some regression too from Washington so I think these are excellent odds for the Trojans. A lot like Florida State the value is good at just a bit above even so go ahead and take them. National Champions - Alabama (+240) It's sad that my top two picks for this were Alabama and Florida State but that's just the state of college football right now. I'd actually parlay this bet with the SEC Championship one to make it +610 or so but if you can't this is still solid value. When I look into this I want to pick a team that I'm confident against every other favorite and Alabama is the only one that checks that box. I like Florida State at +750 but their defense was way below where they should have been last year and that gives me pause for picking them. This isn't like last year where Clemson and Alabama were even matches; I think Alabama is way out in front as the best team and +240 reflects that. I think the dominance continues until Nick Saban's deal with the Devil (unless he is the Devil?) ends which should be next year when he turn 66 and 6 months old hopefully. Overall these were some boring picks but it's tough to pick against teams like these in College Football where the favorites usually seem to win. I hope it's still an exciting season and playoffs but I just don't think we'll have Clemson to get in Alabama's way this year.
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Z TrainThe ponies are the hidden gem of the sports world. For so many of us, it’s virtually unknown outside of the Kentucky Derby every year, even though it’s so exciting and complex. It’s the one sport where gambling is ingrained in the culture; watching a race and not gambling is almost strange, compared to most other American pastimes where gamblers are viewed like the scene from Lord of the Rings where the townfolk cast Smeagol out into the wilderness. There is so much that goes into every single race that you don’t think about: the length, type, weather, and conditions of the racetrack, the size, gender, breed and age of the horse, all of the different (legal or illegal) training regiments and supplements, and so much more can all give horses a competitive edge. It’s fascinating to hear the commentators and experts talk about everything that goes into an event that lasts all but a few minutes, and can mean upwards of $750,000, just for a fast animal. The nomenclature and introduction to racing philosophy isn’t really readily available to anyone who doesn’t grow up near a track, even though the Triple Crown events are as American as apple pie and big fucking machine guns. So as a dignified patriot, I decided I need to start pay attention and doing my homework. I found out exactly what I’ve been telling you, it’s intricate and fun, and I learn something new every weekend as I slowly continue to morph into the degenerate gambler, the Pony Express. Gambling is so fun. I even wrote an article trying to prove that to you. The best way to get involved in a sport in a new kind of way is to put some money on it, and with horse racing, it almost comes with the territory. Betting seems very straightforward, but for horses it can be difficult to explain. While you can read a dictionary definition of “Exotic” bets and what it means to “bet the Show”, it’s another thing entirely to learn how to bet, when your odds are best, and the myriad of other factors that can give you an advantage. Knowledge is power, and while I’m by no means an expert on anything, let alone this topic, I can at least give interested parties a head start in getting involved with the ponies (not animal sex). Straight Bets: Win-Place-Show This is simply the order the horses finish in: Win - 1st, Place - 2nd, Show – 3rd, but the bet is a little different. When you bet the horse to win, you are betting straight on the horse’s odds that they will win. So if you bet $2 on a 6-1 winning horse, you win $12 off of your bet + your $2 back, so $14 total. This is the easiest bet to make and is fun, everyone likes rooting for a winner. Place and Show bets are a little different. If you bet the Place, you are betting that your horse finishes 1st OR 2nd. The payout is not straight from the odds any more, since you are hedging (spreading) your bets and increasing your winning potential, but you have a better chance of winning some kind of money. Show is the same idea, but for 1st, 2nd OR 3rd, so the payout is even less. Due to the decreased payouts, betting favorites just to place or show is not very wise. Instead, a place or show bet is better used on a horse with more of a longer shot. If they end up placing/showing, you end up getting a solid payout if they weren’t heavily favored. My recommendation for the straight bets is: bet favorites to win, bet other strong horses with longer odds to place, and occasionally throw a buck at a long shot horse to show. To me, this is an excellent way to maximize your winning potential and increase your chances. My caution on betting favorites comes down to payouts. The best example is Songbird from the Delaware Handicap last weekend. Songbird had the minimum odds of 1/5 and gave the minimum possible payout (10 cents on a two dollar bet). While I love riding the favorite hype train, financially speaking, betting small money is pointless unless you’re OK with a safe 5 cent return on every dollar, and risking lots of money is what it sounds like: a huge risk. My rule of thumb is to bet Places and Shows and/or turn to Exotics if the betting for a favorite is under even. I like my bets like I like my coffee and my roommate likes his women: Exotic. Exotics are the more intricate bets. These are harder to predict, usually parlays (or betting on more than one event to happen), but the payouts are much greater than straight bets. Across the Board This is a non-parlay bet that is essentially a lower risk-lower reward Win. Across the Board bets a horse to Win, Place and Show. So, if that horse wins, you win all three bets. Likewise, if they get 2nd, you lose the Win, but still hit the Place and the Show. The payout is not as good for an Across the Board as a Win because again, you are hedging your bets, but it is “safer” (gotta put that in quotations for gambling), and you are more likely to win some kind of money off of a decent horse. Exacta The Exacta is my favorite bet to make. This bet is a parlay that predicts the two horses that Win and Place in that order. This is a harder bet to hit and the payouts are much better than a straight Win due to the longer odds. This is a great bet to make if there are two strong horses and you’re not sure who will have the edge. The great payout means small bets can end up paying for themselves if you hit even just one, and risking a little more can win you a shitload of moolah. Trifecta & Superfecta The Trifecta is the Exacta bet, but for the Win, Place and Show. The Superfecta is the Trifecta bet plus the 4th horse. Obviously, this is an insane parlay, several things must happen all at once, which is why the payouts are tremendous. I hit a Trifecta a couple weeks ago at the Belmont Oaks and won $50 off of a $1 bet, and that’s not even close to the best payouts I’ve seen. Trifectas and Superfectas are best made on favorites in a decent-sized field. In a short field (7 horses or less), the odds are typically much more condensed on the stronger horses, whereas, those same horses would naturally have longer odds to win in a race with more entries. A good example goes back to the DelCap last weekend, the short field only yielded a $10 payout on a $1 trifecta (and about $4 on a $1 Exacta), which is just not worth the risk against the stacked parlay odds. The three strongest horses finished in the top 3, dwindling the pot potential. Even with the three favorites finishing in that exact order being “the most likely” event, to me, the fat chance of parlays (i.e. – the odds of every other event) are not worth a minimal payout…but, I still like the Superfecta in small races. Any Superfecta will still payout upwards of 20-1 even in dwindled fields, and the shorter the field, the better your odds of hitting it (kinda). In the DelCap, I was one horse away from nailing the Super, just from betting the odds in order. In short fields, consider throwing a little bet in on the Super if you’re feeling wild. Another strategy is to bet a longer shot for your third spot in the Trifecta. If you feel sure of the Exacta, throwing a small bet on the Trifecta with a longer shot horse might be worth the immense payout you’ll see. Of course, make sure the experts agree before going in on the 15-1 underdog with a fun name who will probably gas out halfway through. But betting longshots to get third is a reasonable and fun bet. Just think about that old movie about that zebra racing, classic underdog story. Quinella The Quinella is the Exacta but not in a particular order, basically just predicting which two horses will Win and Place. In my opinion, this one isn’t worth making. Since you are hedging your bets, you are better off making two Exacta bets on the same two horses to increase your payout potential. Betting the two different Exactas on two horses is called Boxing your bet. If you choose to “box” a bet, you are choosing to bet on each possible outcome of the exotic bet. So betting the Exacta Box on the 4 horse and the 2 horse would be a bet on the 4-2 combination and a bet on the 2-4 combination. This is definitely worth it in the scenario of two strong horses, and can give you a great payout (if you hit it of course). These can get expensive as you get to the Trifecta and Superfecta. Boxing a Trifecta is 6x your initial bet, and boxing a Super is 24x your initial bet. While you may think you’re ensuring a strong payout, you have to be careful. Losing a couple of those can put a dent in your wallet, and those pros and cons need to be weighed well before your wager is thrown away by a poor showing from one single horse, even if the other two or three ran tremendously. A similar technique is Wheeling a bet. This is best when you feel VERY strongly about a horse winning, and want to hit the Exotic combinations. For example, wheeling a $1 Exacta will take your horse (let’s say the 5 in an 8 horse field) and put a buck on every possible Exacta bet (5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-6, 5-7, 5-8) for a total of $7. Again, this can get expensive (do the Trifecta and Super math yourself), but for a strong horse the experts believe in, it could generate a decent payout if you hit it, regardless of the losses. But again, the risk for parlay bets is always bigger than straight bets, and the heavier the favorite, the smaller the payout. Grand Slam This one seems fun even though I’ve never been able to bet it. For the grand slam, you pick a horse from three consecutive races to at least Show, and then pick the winner of the fourth race in sequence. This sounds like you could nail an awesome payout by picking a few lesser-favored ponies to at least show, and then following through with a surefire winning horse, or make a more secure, hedged bet from betting the four favorites. Daily Double & Pick 3, 4, 5 or 6 These are like the Grand Slam, but require picking the winning horse in consecutive races. The Pick 6 is the biggest bet you can make at a racetrack, and obviously, the payout is huge. Winning this would win you gambling money for life. I love making these bets. It’s a good way to leverage at least a little bit of money off of heavy favorites (see Frostmourne and Songbird at Delaware Park last weekend) and getting on a hot streak would get even hotter. My general strategy for Exotics is: Bet small to win big. Obviously, parlays are hard to hit, and minimal risk is preferred for casual fans/gamblers like myself. Keeping a low-risk, high-reward profile is my exact gambling business model. If you’re a thrill seeking, adrenaline junkie, you do you fella, but I’mma do me and it’s small until I start making big boy money. Above is the payout sheet that you’ve probably seen a million times, but not really fully understood. This shows the total payout from a $2 bet (some results sheets are for $1 bets, but usually denote it that way). So if you bet $2 on an Always Dreaming win in the Kentucky Derby, you would’ve walked away with $9.40 in profit, plus the $2 you risked. A place bet would’ve given you $5.20. The Exotics under it work the same way, the 5-1 Exacta would’ve scored you $334.20 in profit, plus your $2 back.
Another betting tip is that you don’t actually know the final odds on a horse until the “post,” or when bets are ceased right before the race starts. Sometimes I bet a Morning Line (opening odds) 7-1 that ends up going all the way down to 2-1 by racetime. This ensures horses inaccurately pegged initially, or those who showed out in warmups, can’t get overbet and shift the odds to certain people. The odds are constantly changing as bets come in, definitely something you want to monitor over the course of the day. I hope everybody enjoyed this post and hopefully it put you on the right track (all week) to enjoy horse racing and gambling as much as I do. As always, use the experts when you can, because that’s their job. They aren’t going to hit every single one, but they definitely help tell you which horses are overrated or underrated, or which horses are solid favorites and why. Use their information and the betting information to maximize your potential and gamble (responsibly) so much that you cry. Z TrainI always wanted to get into betting sports, probably because I've always thought I'm way smarter than I actually am in pretty much every area of my life. I guess I haven't learned the lessons of being too prideful from mere life experiences, so why not just learn them by sacrificing my own money? Seriously though, it's become so easy to gamble, and the lines, odds, and particular bets are becoming more for the average, every-day person and don't require some creepy bookie in a back alley to tell you the details. Any average joe can google search "online betting", and within minutes, safely and securely gamble on casinos or the sports/racebooks.
Spoiler alert if you were in the same mindset I was: It's fun as fuck. I just started gambling in the last few months, and really only lay down smallish bets for fun. As long as you don't fall down the slippery slope of addiction (like a fucking nerd), it's an awesome way to have that much more of an investment into whatever you're watching or sports in general, even if it's just a $1 bet on the underdog fighter on the UFC Fight Night card you think can make a little noise. Checking who's pitching to bet a couple bucks on the Braves, and checking your phone Saturday mornings for the analysis on what ponies are racing on some random racetrack may be a bizarre concept of fun, but very obviously enjoyed by a huge portion of the population. Encouraging someone to start gambling is like dating Taylor Swift: it probably won't end well, but it absolutely will be memorably destructive. So I won't do that outright. I'm not getting kneecapped by some crazy Vegas henchman saying "So-and-so says Z Train vouched for him." But on a real note, don't do this if you know it's not a good idea for you. I'm such a wholesome, good person that I can't actually write something like this without my conscience eating at me that I'd ruin someone's life, so don't be a fucking idiot if you've got a really addictive personality and will destroy your relationships with people. That being said, if you're interested like I was, here's a little one-stop-shop preview on what bets are and which are my favorite to make. Probably will just be preaching to the choir for people who read obscure sports blogs, but here goes: The Line This is the most basic form of gambling, and essentially shows the odds on who will win a matchup, whether it's baseball, football or cockfighting. The "+" shows how much money you stand to net from a $100 bet. The "-" shows the money you need to risk for a $100 net payout. The more negative a number, the heavier the favorite; the more positive a number, the bigger the underdog. Typically this is the easiest to bet, you're literally just betting on the outcome, but it also typically has the most realistic odds. I.e. - if you're looking for a big payout, likely look elsewhere. I like betting this because it's just a simple Pick 'Em. The big payouts are elsewhere for realistic underdogs, but if you can bet favorites well, this is a good place to score some easy money. The Spread Everybody has heard about "covering the spread." This shows how many points a team is favored by, again using the + and - mentioned above. The spread is the same for both teams, which feels obvious, but the line is almost never even for both sides. This can feel like a strange bet, because betting the underdog doesn't necessarily mean that you think they'll win, just that they will lose by less than the oddsmakers say (a cover). This is a pretty good bet to make for a payout: if huge underdogs put up a decent fight, you stand to make a good bit of money, but big underdogs are usually that way for a reason. Bet this if you're the conspiracy theorist bullshitter that "totally called App State beating Michigan that one time." My favorite spread bet is during baseball season. I'll give it to you free of charge. Bet line favorites at home to beat the spread if they are spread underdogs. I've made a good bit of money off of this bet during the summer. I have three reasons for it: 1. The spread is almost always 1.5 runs. That's literally betting they win by more than one run, which you see all the time in baseball. 2. Baseball is a rally sport. You often see innings of multiple runs, as hitters feed off the momentum of the hitters in front of them. If the favored home team is winning, they probably are rolling off the momentum, and they're the better team. I like both of those factors to score runs. 3. The payout is solid. If they're spread underdogs, you stand to make more money than simply betting them to win. Typically you see the cover favored because the beat is technically a parlay or, betting two things will happen at the same time (they must win and also beat the spread, rather than betting the cover: the underdog wins OR loses by less). Parlays scare lots of people because they don't like the odds of multiple things happening at once. But I like to think of it as simply betting that the favored team wins, because most favored home wins are by more than 1 run. If that's hard to follow, you're probably just a dumb person. The Over/Under This is the bet on total points scored by both parties in a game, bout or match. This is a fun bet, because betting the over almost always means you're rooting for a fun game. I'd recommend betting overs if you just want to enjoy the game, that way you don't get pissy when teams score like some kind of fucking douchebag. This is one of those bets that you usually need to know a little more about the teams, matchups, and how they play. For example, no one who has seen football in the last 10 years would ever bet an under for a Big 10 game, and, likewise, any reasonable person would never bet the under in the Steelers-Ravens matchup. Knowing who/what you're betting on is an obvious benefit for any method of gambling, but having common sense about the over/under can stand to make you a consistent payout. The Prop Bet These are the most fun. The Mayweather-McGregor fight has some pretty great prop bets, like the over/under on how many times Conor McGregor will bring up Mayweather's domestic violence charges (it's at 1.5 by the way, I have money on the over). These are goofy, and what's more fun than getting to brag about calling that the Super Bowl winning coach would get covered in yellow gatorade instead of purple, red or blue? Probably a lot, but let me have this. There it is, the beginner's guide to gambling. At one point I'll put up some posts on the ponies (my favorite gambling event), and we'll definitely see some Fantasy Football pieces, but for now, take these tips and throw your life away, it's baseball season! Z TrainHorse Racing + The Train = The Pony Express For those of you who aren't degenerate gamblers, the Stars and Stripes Festival horse race event was this Saturday at Belmont Park in New York, home of the Belmont Stakes of the Triple Crown. This race card was stacked with 5 top races, including two Grade 1 (pompous horse people code for a big deal) filly (girl horse) events.
I hit a few nutty bets this weekend, but really was just on the beneficiary end of some really good advice and surefire winners. I can't even pretend to understand jackshit about horse racing, but I will walk you through a few of my bets and some of the thoughts in my dumb mind during betting. Total Risked: $70 Total Won: $105.30 Net Return: $49.30 Bets Won: 6 Pretty awesome return for this raceday, courtesy of one banger trifecta that I nailed. When I research who to bet (called handicapping in the horse world), I always check out Randy Moss (the white one, yes there is a white one) from NBC and Andy Serling and David Aragona from the NYRA. These guys always have solid picks and analysis on horses worth betting on, and comparing their picks can get you the scoop on who the best horses really are. For the lesser, untelevised race events, tracks usually have resident experts that can give you the down-low on which horses they favor. I'll go into more detail later when I release the horse betting blog I've been planning, but I'll run you through a few of the bets I nailed this weekend in a humble brag. Before you get wild, I'm not a high-roller, I'm a college kid, so my bets are pretty conservative. Good thing I'm getting fucking bucks from the bets I'm winning. Belmont Oaks Invitational: Race 8 (Fillies) Trifecta Win - 8 New Money Honey (5-2) Place - 12 Sistercharlie (8-5) Show - 7 Uni (7-1) Bet: $1 Total Payout: $51.25 Fuck yeah motherfuckers, I turned $1 into $50+ off one bet. Albeit, it was a pretty wild parlay bet. A trifecta is where you pick the first three horses in a row who win. I picked the 8-12-7 combo and scored big time. The experts loved New Money Honey and Sistercharlie, as they were the two favorites. I bet New Money Honey to place, so I scored a couple bucks from that bet as well. But I chose to go with the 7 horse for third because of a fun fact: all three of these horses are trained by superstar trainer, Chad Brown. Every horse that dude touches turns to gold, and I bet them as often as I can. And golly gee did that fucking pay off. All three girls snuck up on the pack coming around the final turn and dusted in the final sprint. Thank you Based Chad Brown, and thank you to all three jockeys that ran perfect races. I'll probably never hit a trifecta again but I am motherfuckin' basking in it. Race #4 Win - 3 Munchkin Money (9-1) Bet: $2 Total Payout: $20.20 It's crazy that this horse was only a 9-1 by the end of betting. He was a Morning Line (opening) 10-1, but was favored by all of the experts I read. At 9-1, that's a hell of a value bet for a strong horse. Since he must have still been a long shot for a reason, I was hesitant to pull the trigger on a bigger bet with my $70 budget, but I'm not complaining. If you're keeping score at home, these two bets alone netted me positive money for the entire day, so that's pretty rad. Race #2 Win - 5 Bonita Springs (6-1) Bet: $2 Total Payout: $15.20 Again, this is an identical bet to Munchkin Money. I bet Bonita Springs to Win after the experts loved him, but was hesitant to bet more from the longer odds than typical favorites. Again, should've bet a little more, but still not complaining with the big payout. Belmont Sprint: Race #7 Win - Mind Your Biscuits (7-5) Place - Awesome Slew (5-1) Show - Tommy Macho (7-1) Bet: $5 on MYB to Win, $1 on AS to Show Total Payout: $13.70 Mind Your Biscuits and Awesome Slew had two of the best names on the day. You can't make this shit up: Biscuits and Slew getting first and second. These two horses winning would've been middle school Z's biggest dream to make fun jokes about. I don't know who I'm kidding, current Z is even happier to get his biscuits slewed. MYB was a clear class above, dominating the race, touted by the announcers as one of the top sprinters in the world. Pretty awesome title and worth a bigger bet than my pockets will allow. Awesome Slew was a favorite with the experts, so I bet a small buck for him to show, or at least get third. He got second, so I still won the bet, for a cool net of $1.70. Pretty awesome race, the Biscuit can fucking run. So there it is. Quite the Saturday for yours truly. It definitely sounds better when I leave out all the bets I airmailed on, like a $10 on Shaman Ghost, that bastard got second, and my other $10 loss for Sistercharlie to win was masked by the trifecta. Here marks the first edition of Z Train turning into the Pony Express, and what a success. You just can't argue with results. Maybe you should just listen to me listening to the experts, I'll be like your gambling middle man. Z Train |