The Loose Balls Snake Draft of the Best Players Taken After Roberto Aguayo in the 2016 NFL Draft8/19/2017
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Tommy V Can you believe we're only 28-3 days away from the next NFL season? Honestly you probably can because this summer has seemed like 1,000 days long with its lack of football. It's been torturous trying to pretend like I'm a middle aged white man that can get by just watching white collar sports like baseball, golf, and tennis but soon enough the time of sitting on the couch on Saturdays and Sundays pounding brews will be here. We at No Brainer Sports and our podcast Loose Balls will be discussing more in the weeks to come about who we think will win the divisions, conferences, and Super Bowl, but for now I want to talk about how you might be able to make some money from this coming season. Mind you these are not what I think is going to happen I just think they are the best values based on the lines Vegas puts out. They're not all going to be sleepers but they should net you some money if you take them all or at least that's the idea. So without further ado here are some of my picks. Kansas City Chiefs to Win the AFC West +240 The 2016-17 Raider were one of the most fluky teams I've ever watched and I doubt they'll be close to their 12-4 record in 2017-18. They had a +2.1 differential and were #20 defense points wise and #26 for giving up yards. The Chiefs were also 12-4 and won the division but on the other hand had worse than average luck when it came to actually winning games despite solid numbers on offense and defense. They had a much better differential of +4.9 by being the #7 defense by points and the #13 offense. I'm looking for those numbers to continue as they haven't had much turnover from last season outside Jeremy Maclin so it's easy to see them being very good again. +240 isn't the highest odds but it's good value for the team that was the #2 team in the AFC last year and should win their division again. THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT +550 TO WIN THE AFC SOUTH I hate the AFC South. I feel like every team in the division sucks but somehow one of them has to win every year so I'm just betting on chaos. The Titans are tied with the Texans as the favorites to win and should have lower odds than +200 because they're definitely the team with the most upside overall. The Jaguars are a complete value play at +550 and I'll give some numbers to back them up. They were the #6 defense by yards last year but someone the 26th (!!!) defense by points at 25.0 ppg which has to regress to the average top 10 defense. They were an anemic offensive team that managed to start 2-3 before losing 9 straight games to bring them to 2-12 where the season fell apart. If they can get an immediate contribution from Leonard Fournette paired with overall great leadership from Tom Coughlin then they should be a much better team then people think. Mostly though I'm just here to raise my Bortles and pray that Tom Coughlin can help Doug Marrone turn this into a top 5 Defense. The Atlanta Falcons at +170 to win the NFC South and +600 to win the NFC I feel like I'm going crazy seeing that the Falcons are at such good odds for both the NFC south and the NFC overall. They looked like the 2nd best team in football at the end of last year and they're being treated like the 4th best team in the NFC. The offense will still be lead by the two headed monster of Freeman and Coleman with reigning MVP Matty Ice at the helm so they should maintain their high octane offense even without Kyle Shanahan. If you could find a site that you could parlay these together you'd be getting +1790 value which is absolutely crazy for them. The division bet I love and the NFC bet I very strongly like. Don't be surprised if it's like college football and we have a rematch for the next Super Bowl. The Pittsburgh Steeler at +1200 to win the Super Bowl To win a super bowl you typically have to be a top 10 offense and defense as shown by the linked reddit thread. There are always exceptions to this rule but in the playoffs you have to be balanced to beat the best. The Steelers were one of three teams together with the Patriots and Cowboys to post a top 10 offense and defense by point per game which puts them in the right company. The Cowboys are also a good value at +1400 as well but I see them struggling with their first in division NFC schedule together with a potential sophomore slump from Dak Prescott next to the 6-game suspension to Ezekiel Elliot. The Steelers were better than people remember getting to the AFC championship and I think that game may have gone differently if LeVeon Bell didn't get hurt so early but it's impossible to know. This is another value play because they're the only team in the AFC I see challenging the Patriots and if there's any luck for them they can find themselves in the Super Bowl with another ring for Big Ben. BradshawSo if you saw my last post about some of the most annoying shit in sports, you'll know that having NFL games end in a tie is one of those things. It really isn't that hard to come up with something to do after you go through an entire OT without anyone scoring. The NFL got lazy and was just like eh we'll just say it is a tie. But I'm not standing for that shit, so here is a list of things they could do to determine who wins. 1. Make the two head coaches run a 50 yard dash Holy shit, can you imagine what it would be like to watch Andy Reid try to run 50 yards. These contests would be an absolute gold mine of entertainment. If they put this in place I would literally hope for the games to go through OT without a winner. You could call it the coach dash and have sponsors out the ass. There you go NFL, take note. 2. Have the two fattest guys on the team compete in a wing eating contest Two giant offensive lineman eating wings to determine who wins a football game, whats more American than that? Exactly, nothing is. The No Fun League would be a hell of a lot more fun if you had a wing eating contest to win the game. Buffalo Wild Wings is the obvious sponsor for this. I'm out here just making money for the NFL. It's too damn easy. 3. Pick a fan from each team out of the crowd and make them fight until one person gets knocked out. Now this is my personal favorite. You get two of the most drunk and ridiculous fans and you throw them on the 50 yard line and make them fight it out. This has the potential to get really out of hand. That would just make it that much better. Fans would go crazy for this. You're combining America's favorite blood sport of UFC together with football. Come on, such a great combination. You would have both teams just cheering their asses off for the two drunk guys. The winner then goes down in history as a true fan for winning the game for his team. Easy NFL, so easy. 4. Have a tug of war contest between 5 players from each team I mean you know football is an intense sport as it is. Imagine after a full game plus an OT, you have 5 players from the team play tug of war. These guys will be tired as shit, but they will use everything in them to win this game. Nothing like having 5 grown men pull a rope to see who is stronger and better. It really is easy NFL, how the hell do you still let games end in a tie? 5. Flip a coin I mean come on, it really is that simple. You flip a damn coin. You know what? You even already have a coin from the beginning of the game that you can use. You don't even have to get a new coin. How has no one come up with this before. It isn't some sort of crazy new idea. Just flip a fucking coin. It really is so easy. I don't understand why the NFL still has this stupid ass policy in place. Regardless of the things I suggested, they could come up with something better than putting down a tie and giving each team a participation trophy. It is just so stupid. There's no changes for this season, but let's just hope that there aren't any ties.
Z Train^ see subject line.
I could end this blog here. Every single NFL preview has had the Falcons wondering “can they avoid the Super Bowl hangover?” As much of a lame-brained, shamefully biased Atlanta fan as I am, I realize that this is a completely reasonable question. We were on the verge of a historic beatdown of an upset and completely fucking blew it to the GOAT, Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr. (Side note: what douchebag has two middle names?) Like epically blew it. From all the insane statistics we all have seen since then, it was the biggest meltdown of all time. So I get the question. I even get the jokes. In the Internet-, highlight-, hashtag-, headline-leading world we live in, everybody loves shitting on stuff. I won’t even vaguely pretend I’m not above that. I’m not even close. So I get the jokes. I really do. I'm not trying to go after the sports-consuming world that I am very much a part of, or be a sore loser about the Super Bowl. Just trying to prove a point. Even though I absolutely am a sore loser. The frustrating part to me is that it’s EVERY post I’ve seen since February. Like I said. I get the question. It’s reasonable. I get the jokes. They’re warranted and pretty funny. I’m frustrated that the professional journalists at these big name, big budget places just give the bare minimum, lazy journalism and analysis. “Super Bowl Hangover” being questioned over and over again just shows me that journalists are looking for a lazy headline grab, rather than looking at the roster Dimitroff and Quinn have compiled and doing some analysis on what’s right in front of them. "The Brotherhood" that DQ has created is legit. Check this awesome article from Bleacher Report (before SB LII I might add). From the team Marine drills to rearranging the locker room for more collaboration, it's badass leadership. So to me, that question is easily answered in only the cliche words a former high school locker room glue guy could say: stick together as a team. So why do we keep beating this dead horse? Is it because no one cares about ATL in the sports world? Maybe. (OK, admittedly, oftentimes, in our own fanbases. Our fans can be shitty. I’m sorry. Your fans can be shitty too. It’s sports.) Or is it because journalists want the headline, want to write us off, and move on with super important blogs about LaVar Ball, where Joel Embiid was partying last night, and whatever the fuck Cowherd is yelling at the sky about? Again, maybe. I don’t have the answers, except to the one fucking question everybody has been presenting and not answering. So Z. What is the biggest question if your such a damn genius? Thank you, I am a genius. And to me it’s pretty easy. It’s our coordinators. Can Steve Sarkisian continue and improve a historic offense without puking up his fifteen fingers of Tennessee Honey, and can Marquand Manuel develop our defense the way I think it can? Sark the Shark. Holy shit. My sister went to U-Dub, so I’ve kept up with Sarkisian for a while. Alcoholic who capitulated in the biggest job of his life? Yeah. But I’m an optimist, and this dude has been through the gauntlet already, failing and picking himself back up again. He joined the Tuscaloosa Island for Misfit Toys, and I’m a believer again. The guy got the Huskies job at 35, and then got the Southern Cal job after 4 years of HC experience. The guy is an undoubted “football guy” and his experience precedes him. I’m a believer. I think he can do it. Hopefully. Marquand is another high-risk high-reward guy. He’s a 7-year journeyman pro via a 6th round pick out of UF. Pretty awesome story. He’s been an assistant to DQ since he was in Seattle in 2012, and he followed him here to Atlanta the last few years as the secondary coach. This analysis comes down to DQ’s judgment. To me, I love the internal hire. I love the guy who’s been under Quinn’s wing and knows what he wants. It’s going to be interesting to see how our defense improves throughout the year, with this being a massive step. We saw a huge improvement as the season drew on last year, and everyone is hoping for even more improvement this year. Our projected defense has 8 starters with 3 or less years of NFL experience (Beasley, Jarrett, Poole, Neal, McKinley, Jones, Campbell, Riley). As a young, new coordinator (37 years old) this is a beast of a job and a huge challenge. To me, the answer to these questions come down to trusting Dan Quinn. He’s gotten us this far in just two years, so let’s see what else he can do. So there you have it folks. Trusting our head coach that he’s put the right people in the right place and can guide our team back to the big show is the key to the season. Sorry for this painfully elementary solution, but hey, this is my first ever blog so fuck you. Let’s treat this stupid ass hangover talk, ironically, exactly how I like to handle things when I’m hungover: lay it to rest. It’s not fucking rocket science. Z Train |