Tommy V Can you believe we're only 28-3 days away from the next NFL season? Honestly you probably can because this summer has seemed like 1,000 days long with its lack of football. It's been torturous trying to pretend like I'm a middle aged white man that can get by just watching white collar sports like baseball, golf, and tennis but soon enough the time of sitting on the couch on Saturdays and Sundays pounding brews will be here. We at No Brainer Sports and our podcast Loose Balls will be discussing more in the weeks to come about who we think will win the divisions, conferences, and Super Bowl, but for now I want to talk about how you might be able to make some money from this coming season. Mind you these are not what I think is going to happen I just think they are the best values based on the lines Vegas puts out. They're not all going to be sleepers but they should net you some money if you take them all or at least that's the idea. So without further ado here are some of my picks. Kansas City Chiefs to Win the AFC West +240 The 2016-17 Raider were one of the most fluky teams I've ever watched and I doubt they'll be close to their 12-4 record in 2017-18. They had a +2.1 differential and were #20 defense points wise and #26 for giving up yards. The Chiefs were also 12-4 and won the division but on the other hand had worse than average luck when it came to actually winning games despite solid numbers on offense and defense. They had a much better differential of +4.9 by being the #7 defense by points and the #13 offense. I'm looking for those numbers to continue as they haven't had much turnover from last season outside Jeremy Maclin so it's easy to see them being very good again. +240 isn't the highest odds but it's good value for the team that was the #2 team in the AFC last year and should win their division again. THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT +550 TO WIN THE AFC SOUTH I hate the AFC South. I feel like every team in the division sucks but somehow one of them has to win every year so I'm just betting on chaos. The Titans are tied with the Texans as the favorites to win and should have lower odds than +200 because they're definitely the team with the most upside overall. The Jaguars are a complete value play at +550 and I'll give some numbers to back them up. They were the #6 defense by yards last year but someone the 26th (!!!) defense by points at 25.0 ppg which has to regress to the average top 10 defense. They were an anemic offensive team that managed to start 2-3 before losing 9 straight games to bring them to 2-12 where the season fell apart. If they can get an immediate contribution from Leonard Fournette paired with overall great leadership from Tom Coughlin then they should be a much better team then people think. Mostly though I'm just here to raise my Bortles and pray that Tom Coughlin can help Doug Marrone turn this into a top 5 Defense. The Atlanta Falcons at +170 to win the NFC South and +600 to win the NFC I feel like I'm going crazy seeing that the Falcons are at such good odds for both the NFC south and the NFC overall. They looked like the 2nd best team in football at the end of last year and they're being treated like the 4th best team in the NFC. The offense will still be lead by the two headed monster of Freeman and Coleman with reigning MVP Matty Ice at the helm so they should maintain their high octane offense even without Kyle Shanahan. If you could find a site that you could parlay these together you'd be getting +1790 value which is absolutely crazy for them. The division bet I love and the NFC bet I very strongly like. Don't be surprised if it's like college football and we have a rematch for the next Super Bowl. The Pittsburgh Steeler at +1200 to win the Super Bowl To win a super bowl you typically have to be a top 10 offense and defense as shown by the linked reddit thread. There are always exceptions to this rule but in the playoffs you have to be balanced to beat the best. The Steelers were one of three teams together with the Patriots and Cowboys to post a top 10 offense and defense by point per game which puts them in the right company. The Cowboys are also a good value at +1400 as well but I see them struggling with their first in division NFC schedule together with a potential sophomore slump from Dak Prescott next to the 6-game suspension to Ezekiel Elliot. The Steelers were better than people remember getting to the AFC championship and I think that game may have gone differently if LeVeon Bell didn't get hurt so early but it's impossible to know. This is another value play because they're the only team in the AFC I see challenging the Patriots and if there's any luck for them they can find themselves in the Super Bowl with another ring for Big Ben.
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