BradshawWell I'm sure I'm not the first person to say it, but the juice is officially loose. Not really yet, but he will be soon enough so it should be ok for me to make that joke. Anyway, if you live under a rock and haven't heard yet, OJ Simpson was just granted parole in Nevada after serving 9 years for a robbery. The robbery, which occurred in 2007, was claimed by OJ to be him stealing back sports memorabilia that belonged to him. Sure buddy. The entire hearing was just ridiculous takes after ridiculous takes, but somehow this board was like fuck it he's free. After learning about the parole hearing, OJ was caught masturbating in his cell by a female corrections officer. Who would've thought that masturbation is illegal in prison. I mean I know that we're trying to punish these people who have done wrong, but this isn't a nazi death camp. Let the man have some self love. Anyways, OJ is out her going for a celebratory jerk and this female prison guard (obviously not a bro) immediately writes him up for disciplinary action. Before this, OJ was apparently a model inmate. They trusted that fucker to run the prison softball league. After this disciplinary action, it seemed that OJ might not get out of prison, but oh no he made it. I was wondering how he somehow talked his way out of prison, but the guy talked himself out of murder charges, so... Anyway, the craziness was constant throughout the hearing. First off, look at that headline. OJ saying he would never, ever pull a weapon on anybody. Ok OJ, ok... Very believable take from you there. The most ridiculous part of this is the fact that one of the parole board members was wearing a chiefs tie. When OJ walked in and saw that, he should've known that he's getting out of prison. Like if you're ballsy enough to wear a chiefs tie on national television, you're a huge football fan. And if you're a huge football fan, you're letting OJ out of prison. End of story. Think thats the most ridiculous part of the hearing? Nope. The dude that was friends with OJ that he robbed shows up the hearing wearing a fucking Heisman shirt. You can't make this shit up. Dude legit shows up wearing a shirt that is advertising the award OJ won in 1968. I'm gonna say that there are no hard feelings between the two at this point. The guy went on to say that OJ never held a gun to him and was overall, giving OJ tons of praise. Maybe they've fixed things? I don't know, but wearing a Heisman shirt is such a power move.
Congratulations to OJ Simpson on his newfound freedom. I'm sure that pisses off a lot of people, but what's done is done. Hopefully he stays out of trouble. I'm sure there will be another OJ documentary out pretty soon. He successfully masturbated his way to freedom and I'm gonna have to tip my hat to that. Pretty solid move.
0 Comments
Loose Balls Tommy V / Eazy E / Z Train As a little preface, the crew from the Loose Balls podcast (coming soon, brought to you by No Brainer Sports) had a little snake draft based on some NBA Summer League action. Make your judgments and picks on who won the draft, and let's see if any of these will translate over to win the games actually start. Based on the Summer League action, who are you taking? Vote on our Twitter account! @NoBrainerSports, button on top of this page!
Z TrainThe ponies are the hidden gem of the sports world. For so many of us, it’s virtually unknown outside of the Kentucky Derby every year, even though it’s so exciting and complex. It’s the one sport where gambling is ingrained in the culture; watching a race and not gambling is almost strange, compared to most other American pastimes where gamblers are viewed like the scene from Lord of the Rings where the townfolk cast Smeagol out into the wilderness. There is so much that goes into every single race that you don’t think about: the length, type, weather, and conditions of the racetrack, the size, gender, breed and age of the horse, all of the different (legal or illegal) training regiments and supplements, and so much more can all give horses a competitive edge. It’s fascinating to hear the commentators and experts talk about everything that goes into an event that lasts all but a few minutes, and can mean upwards of $750,000, just for a fast animal. The nomenclature and introduction to racing philosophy isn’t really readily available to anyone who doesn’t grow up near a track, even though the Triple Crown events are as American as apple pie and big fucking machine guns. So as a dignified patriot, I decided I need to start pay attention and doing my homework. I found out exactly what I’ve been telling you, it’s intricate and fun, and I learn something new every weekend as I slowly continue to morph into the degenerate gambler, the Pony Express. Gambling is so fun. I even wrote an article trying to prove that to you. The best way to get involved in a sport in a new kind of way is to put some money on it, and with horse racing, it almost comes with the territory. Betting seems very straightforward, but for horses it can be difficult to explain. While you can read a dictionary definition of “Exotic” bets and what it means to “bet the Show”, it’s another thing entirely to learn how to bet, when your odds are best, and the myriad of other factors that can give you an advantage. Knowledge is power, and while I’m by no means an expert on anything, let alone this topic, I can at least give interested parties a head start in getting involved with the ponies (not animal sex). Straight Bets: Win-Place-Show This is simply the order the horses finish in: Win - 1st, Place - 2nd, Show – 3rd, but the bet is a little different. When you bet the horse to win, you are betting straight on the horse’s odds that they will win. So if you bet $2 on a 6-1 winning horse, you win $12 off of your bet + your $2 back, so $14 total. This is the easiest bet to make and is fun, everyone likes rooting for a winner. Place and Show bets are a little different. If you bet the Place, you are betting that your horse finishes 1st OR 2nd. The payout is not straight from the odds any more, since you are hedging (spreading) your bets and increasing your winning potential, but you have a better chance of winning some kind of money. Show is the same idea, but for 1st, 2nd OR 3rd, so the payout is even less. Due to the decreased payouts, betting favorites just to place or show is not very wise. Instead, a place or show bet is better used on a horse with more of a longer shot. If they end up placing/showing, you end up getting a solid payout if they weren’t heavily favored. My recommendation for the straight bets is: bet favorites to win, bet other strong horses with longer odds to place, and occasionally throw a buck at a long shot horse to show. To me, this is an excellent way to maximize your winning potential and increase your chances. My caution on betting favorites comes down to payouts. The best example is Songbird from the Delaware Handicap last weekend. Songbird had the minimum odds of 1/5 and gave the minimum possible payout (10 cents on a two dollar bet). While I love riding the favorite hype train, financially speaking, betting small money is pointless unless you’re OK with a safe 5 cent return on every dollar, and risking lots of money is what it sounds like: a huge risk. My rule of thumb is to bet Places and Shows and/or turn to Exotics if the betting for a favorite is under even. I like my bets like I like my coffee and my roommate likes his women: Exotic. Exotics are the more intricate bets. These are harder to predict, usually parlays (or betting on more than one event to happen), but the payouts are much greater than straight bets. Across the Board This is a non-parlay bet that is essentially a lower risk-lower reward Win. Across the Board bets a horse to Win, Place and Show. So, if that horse wins, you win all three bets. Likewise, if they get 2nd, you lose the Win, but still hit the Place and the Show. The payout is not as good for an Across the Board as a Win because again, you are hedging your bets, but it is “safer” (gotta put that in quotations for gambling), and you are more likely to win some kind of money off of a decent horse. Exacta The Exacta is my favorite bet to make. This bet is a parlay that predicts the two horses that Win and Place in that order. This is a harder bet to hit and the payouts are much better than a straight Win due to the longer odds. This is a great bet to make if there are two strong horses and you’re not sure who will have the edge. The great payout means small bets can end up paying for themselves if you hit even just one, and risking a little more can win you a shitload of moolah. Trifecta & Superfecta The Trifecta is the Exacta bet, but for the Win, Place and Show. The Superfecta is the Trifecta bet plus the 4th horse. Obviously, this is an insane parlay, several things must happen all at once, which is why the payouts are tremendous. I hit a Trifecta a couple weeks ago at the Belmont Oaks and won $50 off of a $1 bet, and that’s not even close to the best payouts I’ve seen. Trifectas and Superfectas are best made on favorites in a decent-sized field. In a short field (7 horses or less), the odds are typically much more condensed on the stronger horses, whereas, those same horses would naturally have longer odds to win in a race with more entries. A good example goes back to the DelCap last weekend, the short field only yielded a $10 payout on a $1 trifecta (and about $4 on a $1 Exacta), which is just not worth the risk against the stacked parlay odds. The three strongest horses finished in the top 3, dwindling the pot potential. Even with the three favorites finishing in that exact order being “the most likely” event, to me, the fat chance of parlays (i.e. – the odds of every other event) are not worth a minimal payout…but, I still like the Superfecta in small races. Any Superfecta will still payout upwards of 20-1 even in dwindled fields, and the shorter the field, the better your odds of hitting it (kinda). In the DelCap, I was one horse away from nailing the Super, just from betting the odds in order. In short fields, consider throwing a little bet in on the Super if you’re feeling wild. Another strategy is to bet a longer shot for your third spot in the Trifecta. If you feel sure of the Exacta, throwing a small bet on the Trifecta with a longer shot horse might be worth the immense payout you’ll see. Of course, make sure the experts agree before going in on the 15-1 underdog with a fun name who will probably gas out halfway through. But betting longshots to get third is a reasonable and fun bet. Just think about that old movie about that zebra racing, classic underdog story. Quinella The Quinella is the Exacta but not in a particular order, basically just predicting which two horses will Win and Place. In my opinion, this one isn’t worth making. Since you are hedging your bets, you are better off making two Exacta bets on the same two horses to increase your payout potential. Betting the two different Exactas on two horses is called Boxing your bet. If you choose to “box” a bet, you are choosing to bet on each possible outcome of the exotic bet. So betting the Exacta Box on the 4 horse and the 2 horse would be a bet on the 4-2 combination and a bet on the 2-4 combination. This is definitely worth it in the scenario of two strong horses, and can give you a great payout (if you hit it of course). These can get expensive as you get to the Trifecta and Superfecta. Boxing a Trifecta is 6x your initial bet, and boxing a Super is 24x your initial bet. While you may think you’re ensuring a strong payout, you have to be careful. Losing a couple of those can put a dent in your wallet, and those pros and cons need to be weighed well before your wager is thrown away by a poor showing from one single horse, even if the other two or three ran tremendously. A similar technique is Wheeling a bet. This is best when you feel VERY strongly about a horse winning, and want to hit the Exotic combinations. For example, wheeling a $1 Exacta will take your horse (let’s say the 5 in an 8 horse field) and put a buck on every possible Exacta bet (5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-4, 5-6, 5-7, 5-8) for a total of $7. Again, this can get expensive (do the Trifecta and Super math yourself), but for a strong horse the experts believe in, it could generate a decent payout if you hit it, regardless of the losses. But again, the risk for parlay bets is always bigger than straight bets, and the heavier the favorite, the smaller the payout. Grand Slam This one seems fun even though I’ve never been able to bet it. For the grand slam, you pick a horse from three consecutive races to at least Show, and then pick the winner of the fourth race in sequence. This sounds like you could nail an awesome payout by picking a few lesser-favored ponies to at least show, and then following through with a surefire winning horse, or make a more secure, hedged bet from betting the four favorites. Daily Double & Pick 3, 4, 5 or 6 These are like the Grand Slam, but require picking the winning horse in consecutive races. The Pick 6 is the biggest bet you can make at a racetrack, and obviously, the payout is huge. Winning this would win you gambling money for life. I love making these bets. It’s a good way to leverage at least a little bit of money off of heavy favorites (see Frostmourne and Songbird at Delaware Park last weekend) and getting on a hot streak would get even hotter. My general strategy for Exotics is: Bet small to win big. Obviously, parlays are hard to hit, and minimal risk is preferred for casual fans/gamblers like myself. Keeping a low-risk, high-reward profile is my exact gambling business model. If you’re a thrill seeking, adrenaline junkie, you do you fella, but I’mma do me and it’s small until I start making big boy money. Above is the payout sheet that you’ve probably seen a million times, but not really fully understood. This shows the total payout from a $2 bet (some results sheets are for $1 bets, but usually denote it that way). So if you bet $2 on an Always Dreaming win in the Kentucky Derby, you would’ve walked away with $9.40 in profit, plus the $2 you risked. A place bet would’ve given you $5.20. The Exotics under it work the same way, the 5-1 Exacta would’ve scored you $334.20 in profit, plus your $2 back.
Another betting tip is that you don’t actually know the final odds on a horse until the “post,” or when bets are ceased right before the race starts. Sometimes I bet a Morning Line (opening odds) 7-1 that ends up going all the way down to 2-1 by racetime. This ensures horses inaccurately pegged initially, or those who showed out in warmups, can’t get overbet and shift the odds to certain people. The odds are constantly changing as bets come in, definitely something you want to monitor over the course of the day. I hope everybody enjoyed this post and hopefully it put you on the right track (all week) to enjoy horse racing and gambling as much as I do. As always, use the experts when you can, because that’s their job. They aren’t going to hit every single one, but they definitely help tell you which horses are overrated or underrated, or which horses are solid favorites and why. Use their information and the betting information to maximize your potential and gamble (responsibly) so much that you cry.
Tommy V
Wimbledon 2017 is in the books with the trophy in the hands of a familiar winner. Roger Federer defeated Marin Cilic in straight sets (6-3 6-1 6-4) to give him his 8th finals win furthering his lead at the prestigious event. It blows me away that at the age of 35 Roger Federer looks as good as he ever has and is still absolutely destroying his competition. I wanted to see how the statistics backed up his win at Wimbledon in 2017 compared to his previous wins to see if he's doing something different. Before that can we appreciate just how much better Federer looked than everyone else he faced? He won all seven of his rounds without dropping a single set which is just ludicrous. He only needed to go to tie break five times and two of those were against Tomas Berdych in what was his hardest match of the tournament, but even then it looked like Roger was always in control. This control of the game is what has always given him a major advantage over his opponents as it's nearly impossible to guess what Roger is going to do next. In one of the most humorous moments of the tournament the commentating team tried to guess which way Federer was going to serve. All three of Boris Becker, Andrew Castle, and Tim Henman guess he's going to go out wide. Where does he go? Down the T every time for three straight aces. Give it a watch. That was four aces in a row to get past double break point and take the game by the way. So yes Roger Federer is still ridiculous at age 35 but how does his game compare to his younger days when he won five Wimbledons in a row from 2003-2007? Unsurprisingly his service game isn't what it used to be 10+ years ago. His First Serve speed has gone down a modest 7 MPH from ~122 MPH from 2003-07 to ~115 MPH in this years Wimbledon. Somewhat surprisingly his Second Serve speed has stayed constant around 100 MPH but this is about the normal speed for many top level tennis players so that could be expected. This decrease in First Serve speed has obviously led to a decrease in aces as well as he averaged 16 in his previous finals runs compared to only 8 in this years final match. While he's never been a truly dominant server like Milos Raonic he's gotten more crafty as he's aged. His serve may no longer be able to by his opponents like they once did he can still use both sides to keep them off guard and to deliver deadly volleys to the opposite side. Speaking of which; What he's lost in his service game he's more than made up for in his return and volley game. His 1st Serve and 2nd Serve Win percentages have both gone up from his previous run to his championship in 2017. He averaged a 1st Serve Point Win% of 77% when he was younger compared to 81% in 2017. His 2nd Serve Win% has gone up from 63% to 71%. He's making it harder for his opponents to return his serves and then punishing them if they don't play as perfect as he does. This is a bit different from younger Roger who played a little bit more wild. He's now relying more on a sub-par return so he can launch back one of his amazing forehands that he started his career on. His true evolution has been on the defensive side as he's improved his backhand immensely from a weakness his opponents would exploit to at least average if not better giving him no weak side. This is seen in the statistics as his Return Point Win% has gone from 37% to 46%. He's now winning nearly half of his return points! He's simply spectacular when it comes to his return game being one of the hardest tennis players in the world to get a point on. He locks in on every serve never let the opponent get easy ones on him. You'll never see him giving up serves because he's at double or triple break point (as seen in the video above). This has to do a lot with the mental side of the game and how long he's played tennis for which is his greatest advantage at his older age. The defensive side to any sport is about concentration and effort and it's clear that Roger realizes this is the way to win now as he takes away any offensive advantage his opponents have. He's honestly starting to remind me Kobe Bryant in the Vino stage of his career from 2012-13 where his athleticism was declining but he was so driven and had such a high intelligence for the game that he was able to average 27-6-6 at the age of 34. Actually the more I think about it the more similarities I think of between Roger Federer and Kobe. They are both perfectionists with the ultimate competitive edge who started as young players who relied on sheer athleticism to best the competition. They grew through their career improving their technical ability and mental toughness which led them both to a second wind of championships. The main difference is Kobe was disliked but respected by many people including his teammates while Roger is nothing but loved and respected by everybody he comes in contact with. Perhaps this is because Federer never had any teammates to deal with or maybe he's not an asshole like Kobe was. At least Roger seemed to like Kobe. Pardon my digression it's difficult for me not to talk about the NBA in an article. So it's clearly obvious that Roger has changed his game in many ways but it's even more abundantly clear he's one of the hardest working athletes ever. He no longer dominates solely on the physical and technical sides of the game but has begun to crush the competition on the mental side as well. Like Kobe Bryant his day will come but it's been an honor to watch him continue to cement his legacy with yet another win at Wimbledon. So cheers to another one Roger now go make it 20 Major Championships. Z Train The Train + Horse-Racing = The Pony Express Tough weekend for the Train, I think I may have been derailed (I’ll be here all week). I flew too close to the sun in the Stars and Stripes festival, soaring like the patriotic eagle that I was, and then came back down to gambling ground zero this weekend. I could've just skipped over this weekend's bets to still be in my audience's good graces, but I have integrity and you people deserve the truth.
For a quick recap of the events, Delaware Park hosted the Delaware Handicap and 10 other races, while Belmont Park also hosted an underrated race card of their own. The main storyline here is Songbird, the winner of the Delaware Handicap. Songbird was the odds-on favorite, as a 1/5 Morning Line this week. This horse is a rock star, just check out the Twitter love she was getting. For non-degenerates, a Songbird loss would be the equivalent of an 8-seed sweeping a 1-seed in the playoffs. I’ve never seen this big of a favorite in any race before, especially a Grade 1 of this magnitude, and she showed out. Total Risked: $41 Total Won: $14.50 Total Payout: -$13.00 Bets Won: 5 I couldn’t take my own advice this week, as the Delaware Park handicappers come at a premium, and I didn’t want to sink money into getting picks. I’m a cheap bastard and stick with the freebies. The freebie picks I found for Delaware Park were garbage. I sank a cool buck into the free racing website’s picks to Win, and missed every single one but the remarkable filly mentioned in the previous paragraph. Most of the horses didn’t even finish in the top four. So fuck that. Always roll with the experts. I was on the receiving end of a lot of scratches, nullifying some of my risks, but here are some highlights of my winning picks. Not exactly big payouts due to a lot of heavy favorites, but a lot of learning points: Delaware Park Race 8 Win - 6 Frostmourne (1/2) Bet: $1 Total Payout: $1.50 Frostmourne opened at a 6-1, but was all the way down below even by the post. On top of a badass name, the colt looked strong in warmups, and was the favorite come race time. Little bit of a bummer because the 6-1 odds would’ve been nice, but can’t complain with a win especially on this weekend. Belmont Park Race 3 Win – 4 What a Catch (2/1) Bet: $2 Payout: $5.80 This was the Belmont experts’ pick of the day. Gotta love that. Dropped the $2 and picked up a $3.80 win. A comfortable victory for What A Catch and a nice rescue for me this weekend. Delaware Park Race 9: The Delaware Handicap, Grade I Win – 5 Songbird (1/5) Show – 2 Martini Glass (7/5) Bet: $3 on Martini Glass to Show, $1 on 5-2 EXA, $1 on Frostmourne/Songbird Daily Double Total Payout: $3.90 + $2.50 + $1.30 = $7.70 This was where I clearly generated most of the cash flow. Unfortunately, these horses were all heavy favorites, and I didn’t actually get the payout you’d initially think from nailing an exacta and daily double. More money here on betting these favorites would’ve definitely been a better call, but again as a college kid, you take what you can get. Betting the favorites is a fun way to jump on a bandwagon or Songbird-like hype train while also seemingly a surer bet for smaller risks, but to get a decent payout you have to risk more money. Weighing these pros and cons appropriately can get you a nice sum, as shown by my more conservative risk here. If I had bet a few more dollars I could’ve increased my payout by a good amount, but as seen last week with Shaman Ghost at the Belmont Oaks, big upsets to heavy favorites do happen. After a tough weekend this time around, I’m already looking forward to the opening weekend at Saratoga! The big Diana Stakes Grade I event highlights a few Grade III’s and other events sure to draw a big crowd and provide opportunity for a nice little payout. Anybody interested should check out the NYRA and tune in on Fox Sports 2 and NBCSN on Saturday afternoon, and be sure to gamble your life away like myself. |